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Top stories

Trump Jr.’s 1789 Capital Pours Eight-Figure Sum Into Polymarket Ahead of US Relaunch

Prediction Markets

Trump Jr.’s 1789 Capital Pours Eight-Figure Sum Into Polymarket Ahead of US Relaunch

Authors

31

10 months ago

Sleep-Tech Firm Eight Sleep Raises $100 Million for AI Beds, Eyes China

Sleep-Tech Firm Eight Sleep Raises $100 Million for AI Beds, Eyes China

Authors

12

10 months ago

Leaked Emails Show Epstein Courting Global Surveillance Tech Deals

Leaked Emails Show Epstein Courting Global Surveillance Tech Deals

Authors

5

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Founders Fund

Will Nectome have a legally separate nonprofit dedicated to storing patients by the end of the year?

Mar 18, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.05%chance

121605

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1529

654

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

68.62%chance

211582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1331

784

Will I launch a startup by the end of 2026?

Jun 18, 3:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25%chance

231085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

870

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

Oct 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.31%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

839

Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?

Jul 3, 9:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

40%chance

3408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

910

Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:54 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

14.86%chance

9344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

491

223

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35.72%chance

13340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

891

Will Clean Air Task Force be recommended as a top charity by Founders Pledge or Giving Green in 2026?

May 23, 3:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76%chance

5314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

334

180

Will civilizational-preservation bunkers get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:42 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.15%chance

7311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

200

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will stable-totalitarianism prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 2:30 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

53.7%chance

7130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

221

Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

29.01%chance

669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

242

153

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