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Top stories

Trump Jr.’s 1789 Capital Pours Eight-Figure Sum Into Polymarket Ahead of US Relaunch

Prediction Markets

Trump Jr.’s 1789 Capital Pours Eight-Figure Sum Into Polymarket Ahead of US Relaunch

Authors

31

3 months ago

Sleep-Tech Firm Eight Sleep Raises $100 Million for AI Beds, Eyes China

Sleep-Tech Firm Eight Sleep Raises $100 Million for AI Beds, Eyes China

Authors

12

4 months ago

Leaked Emails Show Epstein Courting Global Surveillance Tech Deals

Leaked Emails Show Epstein Courting Global Surveillance Tech Deals

Authors

5

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Founders Fund

Will @hipcityreg join Founders Fund before 2026?

Jan 14, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.35%chance

42144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

469

21

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

71.78%chance

201532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

734

Will I launch a startup by the end of 2026?

Jun 18, 3:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.93%chance

18659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

869

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

Oct 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.4%chance

4500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1142

876

When will Anduril Industries IPO?

May 29, 11:56 AMDec 31, 12:55 PM

5394

OptionProbability

Q2 2027

Q4 2026

Q3 2026

Q3 2027

Q1 2027

Anduril will not IPO

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

Q4 2027

2028 or later

Q3 2025

23

19

15

14

9

4

3

3

3

3

3

1

Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?

Jul 3, 9:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

40.69%chance

3391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

922

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35.72%chance

13340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

891

Will Clean Air Task Force be recommended as a top charity by Founders Pledge or Giving Green in 2026?

May 23, 3:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76%chance

5314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

334

180

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will stable-totalitarianism prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 2:30 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

53.7%chance

7130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

221

Will human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:26 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.27%chance

8122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

275

169

Will alcohol, tobacco, & sugar taxation get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.09%chance

696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

281

157

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