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Prediction markets for Founders Fund
Will Nectome have a legally separate nonprofit dedicated to storing patients by the end of the year?
Mar 18, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
70.05%chance
121605
OptionVotes
1529
654
Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
68.62%chance
211582
OptionVotes
1331
784
OptionVotes
1290
870
OptionVotes
1192
839
OptionVotes
1120
910
Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 6:54 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
14.86%chance
9344
OptionVotes
491
223
Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
35.72%chance
13340
OptionVotes
1164
891
Will Clean Air Task Force be recommended as a top charity by Founders Pledge or Giving Green in 2026?
May 23, 3:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
76%chance
5314
OptionVotes
334
180
Will civilizational-preservation bunkers get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 30, 6:42 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
65.15%chance
7311
OptionVotes
228
200
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.79%chance
14181
OptionVotes
1013
986
Will stable-totalitarianism prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 2:30 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
53.7%chance
7130
OptionVotes
227
221
Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 30, 6:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
29.01%chance
669
OptionVotes
242
153