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Prediction markets for Four

Will there be a trans genocide in America in the next four years?

Jun 30, 3:49 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6.5%chance

3913977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3792

264

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

29.42%chance

6010049

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5703

4805

Will Bitcoin ever see four-digit prices again?

Jun 14, 6:53 PMJun 22, 4:59 AM

41.58%chance

478821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1220

758

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

Will Total Human Population Fall Below Four Billion by End of 2030?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 30, 10:59 PM

5.23%chance

283066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1782

911

Will there be a revolution in biotechnology within the next four years?

Dec 18, 1:23 AMMar 2, 7:59 AM

55.04%chance

322350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

524

Will "this rapid-fire, breakneck pace continue for four full years"?

Feb 4, 9:59 PMNov 5, 10:59 PM

27.63%chance

201909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1372

129

Will a four-legged robot run faster than a cheetah over a long distance outdoors before 2035?

Aug 7, 7:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

86.58%chance

271461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1513

872

Will "The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power" run at least four seasons?

Apr 30, 5:28 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.91%chance

271397

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

727

Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026?

Jan 10, 10:39 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

7843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

817

Will "Four ways learning Econ makes people dumber r..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 3:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.72%chance

2350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

951

Will "There are only four skills: design, technical..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 19, 2:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.55%chance

426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

962

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