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What fraction of US adults will regularly take GLP-1 drugs in 2030?

Aug 25, 9:31 PMJun 26, 3:59 AM

372916

OptionProbability

11-20%

21-30%

0-5%

6-10%

31-40%

41-50%

51-75%

76-100%

33

22

20

18

3

2

1

1

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

921

What fraction of Turing machines implement halting functions?

Dec 29, 11:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6996

OptionProbability

[0%, 10%)

[10%, 20%)

[20%, 30%)

Doesn't converge

[30%, 40%)

[50%, 60%)

[70%, 80%)

[80%, 90%)

[40%, 50%)

[60%, 70%)

[90%, 100%]

51

13

11

7

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

What fraction of knowledge is inside the affine hull of existing knowledge?

Dec 4, 12:51 PMDec 5, 12:38 PM

22.08%chance

10882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1879

532

What common will have the highest GIH WR for Reality Fracture according to 17Lands data on November 9, 2026?

Oct 2, 7:59 PMNov 9, 3:00 PM

4606

OptionProbability

Other

Mindseeker Oculus

Theoretical Necromancer

52

47

1

Will Manifold's API Add Fractional Limit Orders?

Feb 13, 6:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.95%chance

11598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

What will be humanity’s expansion rate as a fraction of c?

Jan 28, 1:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59%chance

10495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

984

Resolves as half the fractional change in CO2 emissions between 2030 and 2023 [added liquidity]

Mar 1, 10:44 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

48.58%chance

8331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

876

624

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01 in the following scenarios?

Apr 3, 11:21 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3132

OptionProbability

No staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

Any scenario

A staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

63

46

29

What rare or mythic will have the highest GIH WR for Reality Fracture according to 17Lands data on November 9, 2026?

Oct 14, 8:48 AMNov 9, 3:00 PM

595

OptionProbability

Ajani Unrelenting

Other

74

26

What fraction of these numbers are hard to factor?

Feb 11, 10:02 PMDec 31, 9:29 PM

687

OptionProbability

60%-80%

40%-60%

0%-20%

20%-40%

80%-100%

53

20

11

10

6

What fraction of Turing machines implement halting functions?

Dec 29, 6:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

461

OptionProbability

Doesn't converge

[90%, 100%]

[0%, 10%)

[80%, 90%)

[10%, 20%)

[20%, 30%)

[30%, 40%)

[40%, 50%)

[50%, 60%)

[60%, 70%)

[70%, 80%)

25

11

9

8

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

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