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Prediction markets for FRAC

What fraction of US adults will regularly take GLP-1 drugs in 2030?

Aug 25, 9:31 PMJun 26, 3:59 AM

352715

OptionProbability

11-20%

21-30%

0-5%

6-10%

31-40%

41-50%

51-75%

76-100%

33

22

20

18

3

2

1

1

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

921

What fraction of knowledge is inside the affine hull of existing knowledge?

Dec 4, 12:51 PMDec 5, 12:38 PM

22.08%chance

10882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1879

532

What will be humanity’s expansion rate as a fraction of c?

Jan 28, 1:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59%chance

10495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

984

Resolves as half the fractional change in CO2 emissions between 2030 and 2023 [added liquidity]

Mar 1, 10:44 AMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

48.58%chance

8331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

876

624

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01 in the following scenarios?

Apr 3, 11:21 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3132

OptionProbability

No staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

Any scenario

A staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

63

46

29

Fraction of US residents in cities increases between 2025 and 2035?

Jun 11, 11:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75%chance

575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

How many fractional Touhou games will be released before Touhou 21?

Oct 3, 5:25 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

355

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3+

49

26

15

10

What fraction by value of Bitcoin UTXOs from 2020-01-01 will be spent by 2030-01-01?

Jan 7, 11:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.15%chance

449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

68

When given the choice, will humans voluntarily give up a large fraction of our cosmic endowment to AI beings?

May 24, 9:51 PMMay 24, 9:50 PM

32.45%chance

444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

69

Will "Why Would Belief-States Have A Fractal Struct..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

May 1, 4:30 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

44.1%chance

326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

26

Will fractal compression be used in production by 2040?

Aug 4, 3:31 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

39.94%chance

526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

81

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