Fragment News
Prediction markets for Fragment
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
11.08%chance
8138437
OptionVotes
27819
3071
Will an independent replication study confirm that poor sleep can be an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease in flies?
Oct 31, 11:03 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM
76.07%chance
274369
OptionVotes
1783
561
All of the EU, USA, China and Russia fragmented by the end of 2030?
Feb 19, 9:57 AMFeb 26, 10:59 PM
3.19%chance
142896
OptionVotes
551
18
Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?
Jan 15, 9:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
10.35%chance
132254
OptionVotes
2943
340
OptionProbability
87
48
8
8
1
1
1
1
What is more likely to happen in the russian invasion of Ukraine by 2027
Dec 20, 1:43 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
18956
OptionProbability
72
20
4
3
1
Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?
Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
70.7%chance
4555
OptionVotes
1553
644
Which of these Team Fortress 2 weapons will have their stats adjusted before 2029?
Nov 17, 4:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
2284
OptionProbability
50
50
50
41
40
40
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
Which solution becomes the most adopted response to the quantum threat in crypto?
Jan 26, 7:22 AMFeb 24, 11:59 PM
8253
OptionProbability
62
60
51
39
21
OptionProbability
33
25
10
10
7
7
4
3
Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?
Jan 6, 7:42 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM
677
OptionProbability
53
25
22
OptionProbability
60
14
14
11

