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Prediction markets for France 2030

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2030?

Jan 30, 9:34 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

6.45%chance

484825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1855

889

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

Mar 17, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:00 PM

53%chance

573642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

963

Will Palestine become a full United Nations member state before 2030?

Nov 17, 7:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.53%chance

343134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

748

Will Brittany gain independence from France before 2030

May 12, 4:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.83%chance

15918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1761

908

What is the first year in which a rider other than Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard wins the Tour de France?

Oct 31, 4:33 PMAug 1, 3:59 AM

12807

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2029

2030 or later

2026

2025

32

27

16

13

11

1

Will the energy biding zones for either Germany or France be split by 2030?

Feb 15, 7:29 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

1750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will the Group of Seven (G7) add a country before 2030?

May 21, 7:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.44%chance

6300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

933

Will Kosovo become a United Nations member state by 2030?

Oct 8, 5:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.61%chance

6255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

61

Will Keytruda cost less than $5000 per year before 2030?

Jun 21, 12:52 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

25.27%chance

4133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

58

Will Keytruda cost less than $2000 per year before 2030?

Jun 24, 12:00 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

32.99%chance

379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

Will France bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?

Jun 30, 8:46 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Will migrant boats from France to the UK be consistently sent back to France for at least a month before 2030?

Jan 3, 2:17 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.01%chance

12

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

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