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Prediction markets for France 2030

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2030?

Jan 30, 9:34 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

8.06%chance

484475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1494

910

Will Palestine become a full United Nations member state before 2030?

Nov 17, 7:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.79%chance

333081

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1976

739

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

Mar 17, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:00 PM

61.99%chance

562124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

806

Will Brittany gain independence from France before 2030

May 12, 4:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.82%chance

14814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1765

908

Will the energy biding zones for either Germany or France be split by 2030?

Feb 15, 7:29 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

1750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

First confirmed Tomahawk use by Ukraine

Oct 14, 11:34 AMFeb 1, 12:32 PM

11701

OptionProbability

Before February 2026

Before January 2026

Before December 2025

Before November 2025

42

21

10

0

Will the Group of Seven (G7) add a country before 2030?

May 21, 7:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.44%chance

6300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

933

Will PCSK9 inhibitors cost less than $2000 per year before 2030?

Jun 21, 12:40 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

71.51%chance

3180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

158

63

Will Keytruda cost less than $5000 per year before 2030?

Jun 21, 12:52 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

27.35%chance

3124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

61

Will Keytruda cost less than $10k per year before 2030?

Jun 10, 9:38 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

59.17%chance

8121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will France bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?

Jun 30, 8:46 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Will migrant boats from France to the UK be consistently sent back to France for at least a month before 2030?

Jan 3, 2:17 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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