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Prediction markets for Free Association

Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?

Oct 21, 9:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.7%chance

5716040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3285

313

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

Apr 9, 5:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69599

OptionProbability

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

Other

ARC-AGI

Humanity's Last Exam (HLE)

SWE-Bench

FrontierMath

48

15

13

11

7

6

Will the USA control Greenland by EOY2026?

Dec 24, 2:36 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.02%chance

407355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

898

116

Will Greenland enter into a Compact of Free Association (COFA) with the United States before 2030?

Dec 23, 10:24 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

25.71%chance

161847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1700

588

Will Iceland remain a Non-EU member state by the year 2027?

Jan 21, 10:07 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

89.59%chance

121356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1966

821

Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?

May 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27%chance

8844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

608

What will be my credence in 2030 that Erythritol net reduces lifespan in humans?

May 9, 4:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15%chance

4438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Paired Market: In what way will Puerto Rico no longer be a US Territory?

Aug 5, 5:48 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9339

OptionProbability

A State in the Union

Independent Country with Compact of Free Association (a la Federated States of Micronesia)

Fully Independent Country

United States dissolves (or similar)

61

29

9

1

If Greenland is part of the US by end 2027, will an American have died over it?

Jan 19, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.25%chance

10210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Paradise Lost" before 2035?

May 10, 12:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.42%chance

8117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Mojo stock

May 7, 1:41 AMMay 7, 3:59 AM

662

OptionProbability

NO

YES

116

72

Who will be in the next batch of "Stanford celebrity" caricatures at CoHo after Ochoa / Plunkett / Wolf?

May 19, 3:59 AMDec 21, 4:52 AM

122

OptionProbability

Sam Altman

Jensen Huang

Susan Rice

Tony Xu

Ray Klein

Cory Booker

Elizabeth Holmes

66

59

50

50

50

44

43

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