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Prediction markets for Free Association

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

Apr 9, 5:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

817347

OptionProbability

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

Other

Humanity's Last Exam (HLE)

ARC-AGI

FrontierMath

SWE-Bench

56

18

9

6

6

4

Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?

Oct 21, 9:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.23%chance

5816170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3385

304

Will Iceland remain a Non-EU member state by the year 2027?

Jan 21, 10:07 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

96.54%chance

167780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4934

635

Will Greenland enter into a Compact of Free Association (COFA) with the United States before 2030?

Dec 23, 10:24 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

25.71%chance

161847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1700

588

For which of the Millennium Prize Problems will the Million Dollars be taken ?

Apr 9, 7:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

121368

OptionProbability

Yang-Mills & The Mass Gap

P vs NP

Riemann Hypothesis

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture

Hodge Conjecture

62

44

22

19

16

GOP share of senate seats after 2026 midterms? (Resolves to %)

Jan 9, 3:03 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

48.31%chance

91100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

105

Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?

May 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.13%chance

10876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1639

610

What will be my credence in 2030 that Erythritol net reduces lifespan in humans?

May 9, 4:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15%chance

4438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Paired Market: In what way will Puerto Rico no longer be a US Territory?

Aug 5, 5:48 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10380

OptionProbability

A State in the Union

Independent Country with Compact of Free Association (a la Federated States of Micronesia)

Fully Independent Country

United States dissolves (or similar)

51

32

14

3

If Greenland is part of the US by end 2027, will an American have died over it?

Jan 19, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.25%chance

10210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Paradise Lost" before 2035?

May 10, 12:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.09%chance

10183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

Mojo stock

May 7, 1:41 AMMay 7, 3:59 AM

662

OptionProbability

NO

YES

116

72

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