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Prediction markets for Free Association

Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?

Oct 21, 9:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.7%chance

5716040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3285

313

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

Apr 9, 5:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

611093

OptionProbability

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

Other

ARC-AGI

Humanity's Last Exam (HLE)

SWE-Bench

FrontierMath

48

17

13

9

7

6

Will Iceland remain a Non-EU member state by the year 2027?

Jan 21, 10:07 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

94.56%chance

133428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3407

704

Will Greenland enter into a Compact of Free Association (COFA) with the United States before 2030?

Dec 23, 10:24 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

25.71%chance

161847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1700

588

GOP share of senate seats after 2026 midterms? (Resolves to %)

Jan 9, 3:03 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

48.31%chance

91100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

105

For which of the Millennium Prize Problems will the Million Dollars be taken ?

Apr 9, 7:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

91012

OptionProbability

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture

Riemann Hypothesis

Yang-Mills & The Mass Gap

Hodge Conjecture

P vs NP

85

85

85

82

67

Will the new porn-site age verification laws (US) survive in court?

Aug 10, 10:18 AMAug 17, 3:59 AM

93.3%chance

24938

OptionVotes

NO

YES

435

15

Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?

May 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.48%chance

9866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1666

600

Will Liechtenstein continue to exist as an independent state in 2035?

Aug 6, 3:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.41%chance

11341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

252

40

Paired Market: In what way will Puerto Rico no longer be a US Territory?

Aug 5, 5:48 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9339

OptionProbability

A State in the Union

Independent Country with Compact of Free Association (a la Federated States of Micronesia)

Fully Independent Country

United States dissolves (or similar)

61

29

9

1

If Greenland is part of the US by end 2027, will an American have died over it?

Jan 19, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.25%chance

10210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

Who will be in the next batch of "Stanford celebrity" caricatures at CoHo after Ochoa / Plunkett / Wolf?

May 19, 3:59 AMDec 21, 4:52 AM

122

OptionProbability

Sam Altman

Jensen Huang

Susan Rice

Tony Xu

Ray Klein

Cory Booker

Elizabeth Holmes

66

59

50

50

50

44

43

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