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Prediction markets for Free Association

Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?

Oct 21, 9:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.52%chance

5014628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3125

329

Will the USA control Greenland by EOY2026?

Dec 24, 2:36 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6.94%chance

407210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

906

115

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Oct 17, 10:23 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

93132

OptionProbability

Ingria

Chechnya (Ichkeria)

Zaporozhye (Zaporizhzhia) Oblast

Kaliningrad (Königsberg)

Bashkortostan

Tatarstan

Udmurtia

Chuvashia

Sakha (Yakutia)

Karelia

Dagestan

Buryatia

31

16

15

10

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

Will Greenland enter into a Compact of Free Association (COFA) with the United States before 2030?

Dec 23, 10:24 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

25.71%chance

161847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1700

588

GOP share of senate seats after 2026 midterms? (Resolves to %)

Jan 9, 3:03 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

50.55%chance

81095

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

100

For which of the Millennium Prize Problems will the Million Dollars be taken ?

Apr 9, 7:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

91002

OptionProbability

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture

Riemann Hypothesis

Yang-Mills & The Mass Gap

Hodge Conjecture

P vs NP

85

85

85

82

64

Will Iceland remain a Non-EU member state by the year 2027?

Jan 21, 10:07 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

85.28%chance

6641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1443

895

What will be my credence in 2030 that Erythritol net reduces lifespan in humans?

May 9, 4:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15%chance

4438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Paired Market: In what way will Puerto Rico no longer be a US Territory?

Aug 5, 5:48 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9339

OptionProbability

A State in the Union

Independent Country with Compact of Free Association (a la Federated States of Micronesia)

Fully Independent Country

United States dissolves (or similar)

61

29

9

1

If Greenland is part of the US by end 2027, will an American have died over it?

Jan 19, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.79%chance

10209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Paradise Lost" before 2035?

May 10, 12:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.42%chance

8117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Mojo stock

May 7, 1:41 AMMay 7, 3:59 AM

662

OptionProbability

NO

YES

116

72

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