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Prediction markets for Free Association

Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?

Oct 21, 9:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.7%chance

5716040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3285

313

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

Apr 9, 5:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62655

OptionProbability

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

Humanity's Last Exam (HLE)

SWE-Bench

Other

FrontierMath

ARC-AGI

36

16

13

13

12

10

Will Greenland enter into a Compact of Free Association (COFA) with the United States before 2030?

Dec 23, 10:24 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

25.71%chance

161847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1700

588

GOP share of senate seats after 2026 midterms? (Resolves to %)

Jan 9, 3:03 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

48.31%chance

91100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

105

Will the new porn-site age verification laws (US) survive in court?

Aug 10, 10:18 AMAug 17, 3:59 AM

93.66%chance

22931

OptionVotes

NO

YES

443

15

Will Iceland remain a Non-EU member state by the year 2027?

Jan 21, 10:07 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

85.53%chance

11856

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1466

891

Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?

May 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27%chance

8844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

608

What will be my credence in 2030 that Erythritol net reduces lifespan in humans?

May 9, 4:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15%chance

4438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Paired Market: In what way will Puerto Rico no longer be a US Territory?

Aug 5, 5:48 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9339

OptionProbability

A State in the Union

Independent Country with Compact of Free Association (a la Federated States of Micronesia)

Fully Independent Country

United States dissolves (or similar)

61

29

9

1

If Greenland is part of the US by end 2027, will an American have died over it?

Jan 19, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.25%chance

10210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Paradise Lost" before 2035?

May 10, 12:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.42%chance

8117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Mojo stock

May 7, 1:41 AMMay 7, 3:59 AM

662

OptionProbability

NO

YES

116

72

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