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Prediction markets for French

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election?

Apr 9, 1:32 AMMay 7, 11:59 PM

13.04%chance

6119342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2090

686

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French Presidential Election

Nov 16, 8:05 PMMay 21, 3:59 AM

7.49%chance

3812307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3445

499

Will Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?

Oct 19, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.53%chance

303949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2190

875

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be candidate to the french presidential election in 2027

Feb 8, 12:15 AMJul 1, 9:59 PM

59.22%chance

282284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1396

504

Will the French believe Intelligence Artificielle (IA) to be an existential risk, by 2030?

Sep 2, 6:37 AMJan 1, 7:28 AM

59.57%chance

271309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

942

Reform UK, French National Rally, and AfD all in power simultaneously this decade?

Sep 18, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.44%chance

41265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

265

38

Will Lebanon return to a French Mandate before 2030?

Nov 8, 5:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.81%chance

17893

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1680

904

Will there be a french Sixth republic by 2040?

Aug 17, 4:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.66%chance

24699

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

844

Will French Polynesia become independent from France by the end of 2037?

Apr 10, 9:47 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

21.59%chance

9246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

88

French translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?

Oct 4, 3:27 PMJan 1, 4:26 PM

4226

OptionProbability

2027-07-01 to 2027-12-31

2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30

No translation is published before 2028

2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30

2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31

Before 2025-12-31

27

25

21

13

10

5

Will Françoise Bettencourt Meyers (French businesswoman) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

May 13, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.44%chance

4162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

68

Will the next French aircraft carrier be (initially) named after a woman?

Apr 9, 12:54 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

41.3%chance

5108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

138

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