OptionProbability
Lionel Messi to score at least one goal
Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage
USA survives group stage
2+ red cards in any match
Goal from last kick of the game
Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal
Mexico survives group stage
3+ red cards in any match
6+ yellow cards in any match
Red card issued for mouth covering
Team with 0 wins in Group Stage
Black player gets the red card
Bicycle kick attempt
Team scores after being down to 10 men
Both teams score in stoppage time
Player scores against country of birth/heritage
Player bleeding on camera during match
Team loses possession from delay throw-in
Player scores a hat-trick
Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match
Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match
Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)
Team finishes match with 9 players
French-born player scores against France
Goal scored directly from a free-kick
A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament
Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals
“Puto” chant at match
Referee falls down
Any host places 1st in their group
Curaçao scores a goal
Haaland scores over 3.5 goals
Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands
At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal
gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury
Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan
Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick
Cape Verde scores a goal
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200
Canada survives group stage
Trump still alive at end of final match
3+ penalty shootout
Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing
The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals
Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer
Fan hospitalized for heat related illness
20+ penalty goals
Over 9.5 own goals scored
Over 10.5 red cards
Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined
Neymar plays in a match
Trump attends match
Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match
Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet
Players cleat falls off their foot
Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded
Messi scores a goal at 39 years old
A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)
Ronaldo to cry at the world cup
US scores in every single group stage match
Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)
Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?
VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions
South American team reaches semi-final
Champion is unbeaten
Bottle thrown on field
Champion is a first place group stage winner
Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)
2+ European countries reach top 4
Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row
Asian player misses penalty kick
Ronaldo gets in referee face
Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)
Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match
Messi gets a yellow card
Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt
The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner
5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)
Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament
Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?
A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.
Asian player gets the red card
Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats
No red cards issued in the Final match
Any host nation in quarter final
US goes further than Mexico
Both teams in final have red on their flag
Over 289.5 total goals scored*
Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?
The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner
Freddy attends the final match
Team loses after leading 2-0
Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)
Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage
Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits
Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?
Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick
Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match
Someone escorted off field shirtless
More own goals than red cards in tourney
Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament
Elon Musk attends match
15+ minutes of the stoppage time
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300
USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further
Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness
A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message
Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved
Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match
Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium
Player tears their ACL
Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours
Flares in stands during match in USA
Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor
Betting scandal reported
Spain goes further than France
Messi to score a free kick
Laser pointer on goalie during match
Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup
Goal scored within 1st minute
VAR overturns second yellow card
Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption
2 UEFA teams in final
Any match is canceled or postponed
The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals
30+ penalty goals
USA player gets the red card
Disruption at Iran match
Canada goes further than US
Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal
6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage
3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup
Team captain gets red card
5+ hat tricks
Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match
Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?
Final features a team that has never made it to the final before
Winning team has a foreign manager
Bald person gets the red card
Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass
Haaland scores on every game he plays
Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match
Over 395.5 yellow cards
Both players in this photo* play each other in a match
Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)
A penalty shootout to decide the Final match
Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final
Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match
World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage
Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)
First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved
Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties
Champion is a first time World Cup winner
Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs
Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs
Smoke bomb during match in USA
Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)
Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player
Match has a dedicated moment of silence
Messi scores on every game he plays
Ronaldo does not start
The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists
Player gets spat on during match
25+ people arrested at stadium
Salt Bae attending a match
Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)
Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards
Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo
Freddy shown during a match broadcast
England loses on penalties
Animal (not birdy) is on field during match
An African nation to reach the Semi-finals
ICE makes a capture at the stadium
Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)
Goal scored from own half
Fans invade field during match
Player throws captains armband
Headbutt during match
Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match
King Charles attends match
Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?
Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average
Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)
All 48 teams score at least 1 goal
Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)
Another match with 3+ red cards
Asia team reaches semi final
Football is coming home?
Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands
All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage
Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament
Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage
Player walks off pitch protesting referee
Team wins a match without making a single substitution
Major security incident
Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)
Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?
Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline
German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt
15+ cards in any match
Player bit during match
Trump attends 3 or more games
Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer
Bonnie Blue attending a match
Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot
Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)
Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)
Match is forfeited
Trump dancing at match
The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds
10+ goals in any match
An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag
Team gets removed or disqualified
Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament
USA plays Iran
The Netherlands does not survive group stage
Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal
Team finishes third in group and makes it to final
Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card
Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium
Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)
Player suffers cardiac arrest
Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400
Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant
Player shits in the pants during match
Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds
Omar Artan is at a World Cup match
Players / members of team attempt to defect
Confirmed case of Ebola at the match
Ronaldo does jerkin move
A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner
Player dies during World Cup
A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points
Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant
Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)
Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match
All 3 host countries win the opener
Ronaldo scores before Messi
4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
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100
100
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91
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90
86
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80
77
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72
68
66
64
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50
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4
4
4
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3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Santa is rigged
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
Imane Khelif is intersex
DHMO in the water supply
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
Groundhog Day is rigged
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Some answers in this market are bought NO because they are true
Dead Internet theory
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Gamergate was right
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Annie Altman's abuse claims
John McAfee didn't kill himself
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
China made covid 19 in a lab
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
Epstein was alive as of Jan 2026, but dead in the meantime since his "suicide"
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
China was not genociding Uyghurs
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The CIA killed JFK
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
A cure for cancer has already been found
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Princess Diana was assassinated
The NFL is rigged
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
Harold Holt murdered
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
Bush did 9/11
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Israel killed JFK
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Exercise is bad for your health
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
The Mandella Effect in general is real
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Epstein was still alive as of Jan 2026
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
QR codes are satanic
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Human didnt evolve from apes
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Rationalussy isn't real.
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
US government is harboring aliens
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
The illuminati runs the world
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
*All* health care is net negative for health
Q is Putin
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
Yeti is real or similar creature
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
Earth is hollow
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Africa isn't real
Flossing is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
91
90
88
86
82
82
82
80
80
76
74
71
70
69
67
60
56
55
55
52
50
50
48
47
43
42
42
42
41
38
37
36
36
36
35
35
34
33
33
33
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31
31
31
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27
27
26
26
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24
24
23
22
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12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
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11
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Tony Blair (former UK Prime Minister)
Viktor Orbán (Hungarian Prime Minister)
Tô Lâm (Vietnamese Communist Party Secretary General)
Javier Milei (Argentine President)
Edi Rama (Albanian Prime Minister)
Santiago Peña (Paraguayan President)
Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Turkish President)
Shehbaz Sharif (Pakistani Prime Minister)
Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister)
Marco Rubio (US Secretary of State)
Steve Witkoff (US Special Envoy)
Jared Kushner (Trump's son-in-law)
Marc Rowan (Finance billionaire)
Ajay Banga (President of World Bank)
Robert Gabriel (US Security Adviser)
Nickolay Mladenov (Bulgarian diplomat)
Alexander Lukashenko (Belarusian President)
Vladimir Putin (Russian President)
Narendra Modi (Indian Prime Minister)
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Brazilian President)
United Kingdom
Anthony Albanese (Australian Prime Minister)
Mark Carney (Canadian Prime Minister)
Giorgia Meloni (Italian Prime Minister)
Xi Jinping (Chinese Communist Party Secretary General)
Ursula von der Leyen (EU Commission President)
Emmanuel Macron (French President)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
69
37
18
15
11
10
8
7
7
5
5
OptionProbability
Shakira
BTS
Madonna
Chris Martin
Burna Boy
Karol G
Jelly Roll
Carin Leon
Jessie Reyez
Justin Bieber
IShowSpeed
Sabrina Carpenter
Maluma
Cardi B
Drake
David Guetta
Coldplay
Lewis Capaldi
Bad Bunny
Taylor Swift
A French mime
97
95
95
58
55
48
48
48
48
41
41
33
32
32
30
27
11
4
3
2
1
OptionProbability
English
Other
Modern Standard Arabic
Mandarin Chinese
Hindi
Spanish
French
Swahili
Indonesian
Esperanto
Urdu
Bengali
Russian
Portugese
German
Japanese
Farsi
Turkish
Korean
31
27
12
11
8
3
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
[Decathlon] 6 or more WorldTour victories
[Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege
[Alpecin] Jasper Philipsen wins Gent-Wevelgem
[UAE] 40 or more WorldTour victories
[Uno-X] 4 or more WorldTour victories
[FDJ-Suez] Demi Vollering scores the most UCI points of any woman in 2026
[Red Bull-BORA] Florian Lipowitz places better than Remco Evenepoel at the Tour de France
[Decathlon] Top 6 in the UCI rankings in 2026
[Lotto-Intermarche] 13 or more victories (.1 or higher)
[Lidl-Trek] Do not podium any Grand Tour GC
[Lidl-Trek] Juan Ayuso podiums the Vuelta a España GC
[Soudal-Quickstep] 15 or more WorldTour victories
[Lidl-Trek] 23 or more WorldTour victories
[Red Bull-BORA] 15 or more WorldTour victories
[Uno-X] Jonas Abrahamsen wins 2 or more Grand Tour stages
[Uno-X] Johannes Kulset scores 1000 or more UCI points
[Lidl-Trek] Mattias Skjelmose leaves the team before the end of 2026
[Red Bull-BORA] Finish on the podium in GC in all three Grand Tours
[Ineos] Sam Welsford wins 4 times as many races (or more) as Arne Marit
[Lidl-Trek] Mads Pedersen does not win a WorldTour race
[Ineos] Joshua Tarling wins more time trials than Remco Evenepoel
[Lotto-Intermarche] 4 or more WorldTour victories
[Decathlon] Olav Kooij wins 4 or more WorldTour races
[Ineos] Egan Bernal and Brandon Rivera sign with Movistar before EOY 2026
[Uno-X] Do not finish in the top 10 of any Grand Tour GC
[Visma] Matthew Brennan wins 3 Vuelta stages + the green jersey
[Lidl-Trek] 3rd in UCI points for the 2026 season
[Alpecin] Win the points classification in two Grand Tours
[Visma] Sepp Kuss finishes better than Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour de France
[Visma] A French rider on Visma wins a WorldTour stage race GC
[Uno-X] Adne Holter scores 1000 or more UCI points
[Visma] Bruno Armirail wins a Tour de France stage
[NSN] Biniam Girmay wins a 1.UWT race
[Decathlon] Paul Seixas wins Il Lombardia
[UAE] Antonio Morgado podiums a 1.UWT classic race
[Visma] Wilco Kelderman wins a race
[Red Bull-BORA] Laurence Pithie podiums a Monument
[Lidl-Trek] Mathias Vacek wins a cobbled classic
[Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums the Giro d'Italia
[Decathlon] Win a stage in all three Grand Tours
[Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins a Giro d'Italia stage
[Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins the King of the Mountains at the Giro d'Italia
[Soudal-Quickstep] Ilan van Wilder has a better average finishing position than Remco Evenepoel in the Ardennes classics (Amstel, Fleche, LBL)
[UAE] Tadej Pogacar wins all five Monuments
[NSN] Corbin Strong podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege
[Visma] Timo Kielich finishes in the top 5 at Paris-Roubaix
[Visma] Matthew Brennan wins Milan-San Remo
100
100
100
74
73
73
70
66
65
45
45
41
34
33
32
31
31
29
29
24
24
24
23
20
18
18
16
15
15
14
12
12
10
9
8
6
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
None by 2035
China 🇨🇳
USA 🇺🇸
EU - French reactor
Other
EU - UK reactor
Russia 🇷🇺
61
12
12
5
5
4
2
OptionProbability
High Noon
The Gold Rush
Sophie's Choice
Goodfellas
The French Connection
Pulp Fiction
The Last Picture Show
Do The Right Thing
Blade Runner
Yankee Doodle Dandy
Toy Story
Ben-Hur
The General
On The Waterfront
It's a Wonderful Life
Chinatown
The Grapes of Wrath
ET the Extra Terrestrial
To Kill a Mockingbird
Mr Smith Goes to Washington
Double Indemnity
The Maltese Falcon
Godfather Part II
One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest
Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (original animated)
Annie Hall
Bridge on the River Kwai
The Best Years of our Lives
Treasure of the Sierra Madre
The Sound of Music
King Kong (original)
Bonnie and Clyde
Midnight Cowboy
The Philadelphia Story
Shane
It Happened One Night
A Streetcar Named Desier
Rear Window
Intolerance
Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring
West Side Story
Taxi Driver
The Deer Hunter
M*A*S*H*
North by Northwest
Jaws
Rocky
Nashville
Duck Soup
Sullivan's Travels
American Graffiti
Cabaret
Network
The African Queen
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf
Unforgiven
Tootsie
A Clockwork Orange
Saving Private Ryan
The Shawshank Redemption
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
Silence of the Lambs
In the Heat of the Night
Forrest Gump
All the President's Men
Modern Times
The Wild Bunch
The Apartment
Spartacus
Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans
Titanic
Easy Rider
A Night at the Opera
Platoon
12 Angry Men
Bringing Up Baby
The Sixth Sense
Swing Tie
Raging Bull
Singin in the Rain
Vertigo
City Lights
The Searchers
Psycho
2001 A Space Odyssey
Sunset Boulevard
The Graduate
Dr Strangelove
Some Like it Hot
Schindler's List
The Wizard of Oz
Apocalypse Now
Star Wars
All About Eve
Lawrence of Arabia
Gone with the Wind
Casablanca
The Godfather
Citizen Kane
66
62
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
41
38
34
34
34
33
32
28
27
25
19
16
OptionProbability
French
German
Italian
British
Other
Russian
33
18
14
14
12
9
OptionProbability
Bo French (R)
Jon Rosenthal (D)
Other
65
32
3
OptionProbability
2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31
2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30
2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30
2027-07-01 to 2027-12-31
Before 2025-12-31
No translation is published before 2028
32
25
16
11
8
8
OptionProbability
Thompson (2025) "Précis of the blind spot: Why science cannot ignore human experience"
Shimony (1963) "Role of the Observer in Quantum Theory"
French (2025) "Why quantum mechanics needs phenomenology"
Wheeler (1977) "Include the Observer in the Wave Function?"
Pienaar (2021) "QBism and Relational Quantum Mechanics compared"
London & Bauer (1939) "The Theory of Observation in Quantum Mechanics"
Zahavi (2025) "Quantum phenomenology Measurement, reflection, correlation"
Dennett & Kinsbourne (1992) "Time and the observer: The where and when of consciousness in the brain"
Barandiaran et al. (2009) "Defining Agency: Individuality, Normativity, Asymmetry, and Spatio-temporality in Action”
Putnam (1981) "Quantum mechanics and the observer"
Fields (2012) "If Physics Is an Information Science, What Is an Observer?"
Kent (2016) "Quanta and Qualia"
Ball (2023) "How Life Works: A User’s Guide to the New Biology"
James (1879) "Are We Automata?"
Islami & Wiltsche (2025) "The French crisis Rethinking the phenomenology of quantum mechanics"
Pienaar (2025) "French on London and Bauer, and QBism"
Nave (2025) "A Drive to Survive"
Manzotti (2025) "A Deflationary Account of Information in Terms of Probability"
Tod & Thompson (2025) "The Third Entity: Participatory Sense-Making, Agency, and Attentional Dynamics"
Stoica (2025) "What makes you an observer?"
Dieks (2018) "Quantum Mechanics and Perspectivalism"
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
58
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
49
49
0
0
