OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Imane Khelif is intersex
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
DHMO in the water supply
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Santa is rigged
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Annie Altman's abuse claims
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Gamergate was right
Dead Internet theory
Groundhog Day is rigged
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
John McAfee didn't kill himself
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
China made covid 19 in a lab
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
China was not genociding Uyghurs
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
The CIA killed JFK
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
A cure for cancer has already been found
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
Bush did 9/11
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Israel killed JFK
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
The NFL is rigged
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Harold Holt murdered
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Princess Diana was assassinated
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Human didnt evolve from apes
Exercise is bad for your health
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
Yeti is real or similar creature
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
91
91
90
89
85
84
80
76
75
74
74
71
70
69
67
55
52
51
50
46
46
44
42
42
41
40
40
39
39
38
38
37
35
35
34
32
31
31
30
30
30
29
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
26
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
23
22
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Officials Say
With Biden
Trump Wins
Court Orders
Found dead
Texas Fire
Civil war
Olympic Gold
Climate Change
Bird Flu
Supreme Court
Trade War
Southern Border
Border Crisis
Artificial Intelligence
Landmark Decision
Second Term
Inflation down
federal reserve
Officials Insist
Tension Builds
Vows to
Drone Strike
Trump Ordered
A.I. Legislation
Earthquake Kills
Former President
New report
Death Toll
at Odds
European Union
Talks Between
declares war
Assassination Attempt
AI Czar
Keir Starmer
National Emergency
On record
Lawmakers Move
Tipping Point
Summer Olympic Games
Fake news
Impeachment Inquiry
Takes Gold
Chemical weapon
Officials Worry
First Ever
threat to democracy
Trump guilty
Cancer cure
nuclear weapon
market crashes
In Historic Decision
Hoping To
Officials Declare
Officials Deny
Alleged genocide
Highest Ever
Strikes continue
Ceasefire Agreement
Republicans Lose
Third attempt
nuclear bomb
Kremlin Says
court allows
Nuclear war
General Condemns
Joins NATO
Swift Becomes
Musk donates
Tempers Flare
Dalai Lama
Homelessness ban
Generation Alpha
Haley announces
In Setback
Double Knockout
Supreme Court, 9-0
Most Ever
Trump Convicted
Take Home
Leaves NATO
trump’s assassin
Olympic Debut
Carter Dead
Talks Begin
Presidential library
Revolutionary Song
Artificial General Intelligence
69 billion
Harris Wins
"French Fries"
Biden Announces
Occult hand
Effective Altruism
Sudden Death
Demands Justice
TikToker Found
Feared dead following
Apocalypse imminent
Biden Wins
Florida Man
Trump Dead
Holy hell
Putin Dead
Biden Dead
owo what's this
I Like Ike
Astral Codex Ten
Manifold Markets
Ghost Trees
Williamson Wins
Africa Toto
General Condoms
Dewey Defeats Truman
En passant forced
Titanic 2 Sinks
skibidi toilet
never gonna give you up
Rationalussy Cult
"Vriska did nothing wrong"
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
58
57
55
54
51
50
50
49
49
49
48
47
46
46
45
44
44
43
42
40
39
39
39
38
37
37
36
36
35
34
34
34
34
34
33
32
32
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
28
28
27
27
27
26
25
24
24
24
23
22
22
21
20
19
18
17
15
15
15
14
14
13
13
12
12
12
11
10
10
10
10
10
8
8
8
8
7
7
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
English
Other
Modern Standard Arabic
Mandarin Chinese
Hindi
Spanish
French
Swahili
Indonesian
Esperanto
Urdu
Bengali
Russian
Portugese
German
Japanese
Farsi
Turkish
Korean
32
21
15
11
9
3
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Noise-canceling headphones (e.g. Bose Quietcomfort 45)
Rice Cooker
Sleep mask
Password manager software
Subscription to Waking Up App
Stand/sit desk
E-reader (e.g. Amazon Kindle Paperwhite)
Memory foam pillow
Loop Earplugs
Bidet Attachment
Earplugs
Open-ear bone-conducting headset (e.g. Shockz OpenRun Pro).
Adhesive/temporary blackout shades
Air fryer
Noise-cancelling earbuds (e.g. Bose QuietComfort Ultra or AirPods Pro)
Instant Pot
CO2 Monitor
Ergonomic mouse
External monitor
High-lumen LED lighting
French press
$249 donation to a charity of your choice
Ergonomic keyboard
Side sleeper pillow
Running shoes
Under-desk treadmill
Cordless Vacuum Cleaner
Robot vacuum cleaner
Memory-foam mattress topper
Cast Iron Skillet
Bamboo linen sheets and pillowcases
Melatonin for sleep
Mattress topper
Ferritin supplements
Continuous glucose monitor
Instant glucose tests (finger-prick)
Back massage tool (e.g. Back Buddy)
Weighted blanket
Smart lights for bedroom
Waterpik
Nasal strips
Magnesium glycinate for sleep
88
80
77
74
74
73
72
71
71
71
70
70
67
66
66
62
59
53
52
52
52
50
46
45
44
43
43
42
39
36
34
31
29
29
26
26
21
15
12
11
8
4
OptionProbability
Expedition 33 wins 3+ awards
Someone uses a Japanese honorific while speaking English
A Nintendo game wins Best Family Game
Someone says "AI", "artificial intelligence", or "ChatGPT"
Appearance by an A-list actor (A-list status judged by Claude)
Upcoming Half-Life game or related rumors/hype are mentioned at all, even jokingly
A winner keeps talking for 15+ seconds after their end music starts
Geoff Keighly is wearing a tie
Someone says "fuck" or derivatives
Someone references the "please wrap it up" incident
The show is better than average (judged by Manifold poll)
Geoff audibly coughs or clears throat 3+ times
Expedition 33 wins 6+ awards
Anyone speaks a full sentence in French
A new Nintendo Switch or Nintendo Switch 2 exclusive game is announced
Technical difficulties stall show or break livestream for >30 seconds
Steam deck "2" information and/or Steam Machine Price Points
A Muppet insults Geoff
A Nintendo (NCL) or Nintendo of America employee appears in-person
Someone references the Sid the Science Kid meme
KCD 2 wins 1+ awards
Gabe Newell appears in-person
Geoff trips
Someone references the Reformed Orthodox Rabbi Bill Clinton incident
Expedition 33 wins 11 awards???
97
86
86
83
77
66
60
57
56
56
55
55
51
41
40
40
39
38
28
24
23
22
21
16
4
OptionProbability
None by 2035
USA 🇺🇸
China 🇨🇳
EU - French reactor
Other
EU - UK reactor
Russia 🇷🇺
51
18
11
6
6
5
3
OptionProbability
Bad Bunny
Shakira
Taylor Swift
A French mime
35
24
5
5
OptionProbability
CGT union officially joins and supports the movement
Over 40 simultaneous protest locations on September 10, 2025
Over 500 arrests nationwide on September 10, 2025
FO union officially joins and supports the movement
At least 6 oil refineries or fuel depots blockaded simultaneously
Over 20% of gas stations face fuel shortages during the movement
RATP closes 5+ metro lines for a full day
CFDT union officially joins and supports the movement
Solidaires union officially joins and supports the movement
UNEF calls for university blockades nationwide
Over 10 universities blocked on a single day
Government invokes Article 49.3 on a budget bill amid the movement
National Assembly dissolved and snap legislative elections called
Conseil d'Etat suspends a protest-related policing measure
French government announces major budget policy change in response to this movement
An RN representative supports the movement
A cabinet minister resigns citing the protests
SNCF rail traffic falls below 20% of normal on at least one day during the movement
President announces a national referendum proposal in response to the movement
A curfew is imposed in at least one department
The movement will last more than 2 months (100,000 people manifesting nationwide after November 10)
A state of emergency is declared in response to the movement
Macron resigns due to the protests
International solidarity protests in over 10 foreign cities
Over 100,000 people participate in protests in Paris on September 10, 2025
Over 500,000 people protest nationwide on September 10, 2025
Over 200 injured nationwide on September 10, 2025
Over 1,000,000 cumulative participants across all protests by September 30, 2025
100
100
100
79
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
34
34
34
24
24
24
20
10
1
1
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
High Noon
The Gold Rush
Sophie's Choice
Goodfellas
The French Connection
Pulp Fiction
The Last Picture Show
Do The Right Thing
Blade Runner
Yankee Doodle Dandy
Toy Story
Ben-Hur
The General
On The Waterfront
It's a Wonderful Life
Chinatown
The Grapes of Wrath
ET the Extra Terrestrial
To Kill a Mockingbird
Mr Smith Goes to Washington
Double Indemnity
The Maltese Falcon
Godfather Part II
One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest
Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (original animated)
Annie Hall
Bridge on the River Kwai
The Best Years of our Lives
Treasure of the Sierra Madre
The Sound of Music
King Kong (original)
Bonnie and Clyde
Midnight Cowboy
The Philadelphia Story
Shane
It Happened One Night
A Streetcar Named Desier
Rear Window
Intolerance
Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring
West Side Story
Taxi Driver
The Deer Hunter
M*A*S*H*
North by Northwest
Jaws
Rocky
Nashville
Duck Soup
Sullivan's Travels
American Graffiti
Cabaret
Network
The African Queen
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf
Unforgiven
Tootsie
A Clockwork Orange
Saving Private Ryan
The Shawshank Redemption
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
Silence of the Lambs
In the Heat of the Night
Forrest Gump
All the President's Men
Modern Times
The Wild Bunch
The Apartment
Spartacus
Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans
Titanic
Easy Rider
A Night at the Opera
Platoon
12 Angry Men
Bringing Up Baby
The Sixth Sense
Swing Tie
Raging Bull
Singin in the Rain
Vertigo
City Lights
The Searchers
Psycho
2001 A Space Odyssey
Sunset Boulevard
The Graduate
Dr Strangelove
Some Like it Hot
Schindler's List
The Wizard of Oz
Apocalypse Now
Star Wars
All About Eve
Lawrence of Arabia
Gone with the Wind
Casablanca
The Godfather
Citizen Kane
66
62
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
41
38
34
34
34
33
32
28
27
25
19
16
OptionProbability
French
German
Italian
British
Other
Russian
25
20
15
15
13
12
OptionProbability
2027-07-01 to 2027-12-31
2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30
No translation is published before 2028
2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30
2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31
Before 2025-12-31
27
25
21
13
10
5
OptionProbability
No appropiate study will be found before the time limit
No significant differences
Other
Slicked back
Crew cut
French Crop
Undercut
Buzz cut
Broccoli haircut
Curtains
Mullet
25
23
9
8
8
7
6
6
3
3
1
