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Prediction markets for Fried

Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032

Nov 15, 1:45 AMDec 31, 10:17 PM

15%chance

348817

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

457

Sam Bankman-Fried in prison by 2030

Dec 1, 8:33 AMJan 1, 10:00 AM

98.52%chance

245264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4446

798

Will Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty at least as severe as life imprisonment with the possibility of parole before 2030?

Nov 14, 1:32 PMDec 31, 6:30 PM

6.86%chance

163309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2792

673

Sam Bankman-Fried will be put into solitary confinement by end 2026

Oct 17, 9:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.37%chance

202156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2353

767

Will Stephen Fry be the narrator for the "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" audiobook?

May 19, 4:42 AMSep 17, 4:39 AM

30.26%chance

251908

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1518

659

What do you predict Sam Bankman-Fried's net worth will be on Nov 16, 2025? (i.e., ~3 years from the FTX crises)

Nov 16, 3:29 PMOct 15, 3:59 AM

48%chance

201863

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1347

750

Will Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?

Nov 4, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.03%chance

151400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

165

Will Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?

Oct 26, 6:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.06%chance

7540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1361

735

Will Sam Bankman-Fried convert to Islam in prison?

Nov 9, 3:04 PMNov 17, 4:59 AM

7.27%chance

10525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

418

161

Will Sam Bankman-Fried launch a new crypto exchange within a year of getting out of prison?

Mar 28, 4:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.21%chance

7435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

447

168

Will Sam Bankman-Fried still be alive at the beginning of 2030?

Jan 5, 7:10 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

92.04%chance

12363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

496

154

If convicted, which prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sent to?

Aug 12, 3:48 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3238

OptionProbability

FCI Otisville

USP Lompoc

FCI Lompoc

Other

FCI Herlong

FPC Pensacola

FPC Yankton

FPC Montgomery

FPC Duluth

FCI Cumberland

USP Canaan

USP Lewisburg

FCI Morgantown

FCI Beckley

FCI Schuylkill

28

8

8

8

7

6

6

5

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

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