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Prediction markets for Fried

Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?

Aug 21, 7:36 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

12802903970

OptionProbability

Other

Elon Musk

Bill Gates

Jeff Bezos

Robert Caro

Mr. Beast

Barack Obama

Donald Trump

Kamala Harris

JD Vance

Terence Tao

Sarah Paine

Sam Altman

Narendra Modi

Gwern Branwen

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

roon

Geoffrey Hinton

Ilya Sutskever

Jensen Huang

Peter Thiel

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

Tim Cook

Satya Nadella

Justin Trudeau

Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

Xi Jinping

Dalai Lama

Buffett

Taylor Swift

Joe Biden

Lebron James

GPT-5

Bill Clinton

A basketball player

Vladimir Putin

Benjamin Netanyahu

Jesus Christ

Rona Wang

Jose Luis ricon

Kettner Griswold

James Koppel

Sam Bankman-Fried

Nancy Pelosi

Rishi Sunak

Keir Starmer

Satoshi Nakomoto

Jimmy Carter

George W Bush

Al Gore

Michael Jackson

your mom

Mitt Romney

one or both of his parents

A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

Connor Duffy

MBS

pope Francis

Scott Alexander

The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

Leonardo DiCaprio

RFK Jr

Sydney Sweeney

growing_daniel

greg16676935420

Deadpool

Shaq

Oprah Winfrey

Yoshua Bengio

Sundar Pichai

Scarlett Johansson

Paul McCartney

[duplicate]

Neel Nanda

King Charles

Kim Jong Un

Gavin Newsom

Royal Palace

[cancelled option]

Daniel Yergin

Peter Singer

Gabe Newell

Neil Gorsuch

Stephen Breyer

Dmitry Medvedev

JK Rowling

Shrek

Sam Hyde

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

Marques Brownlee

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump Jr.

Ben Shindel

Javier Milei

Dylan Patel

Joe Rogan

Marc Andreessen

Mike Tyson

Jake Paul

Matt Gaetz

21

13

12

11

6

5

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032

Nov 15, 1:45 AMDec 31, 10:17 PM

16.86%chance

378990

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

402

Sam Bankman-Fried in prison by 2030

Dec 1, 8:33 AMJan 1, 10:00 AM

97.78%chance

277373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3029

824

Will Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty at least as severe as life imprisonment with the possibility of parole before 2030?

Nov 14, 1:32 PMDec 31, 6:30 PM

7.26%chance

163436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2665

683

Sam Bankman-Fried will be put into solitary confinement by end 2026

Oct 17, 9:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.58%chance

212974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2882

725

Will Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?

Nov 4, 10:31 PMMay 30, 6:59 AM

8.79%chance

192155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

389

Will Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?

Oct 26, 6:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.53%chance

81340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1909

524

Will Sam Bankman-Fried launch a new crypto exchange within a year of getting out of prison?

Mar 28, 4:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.18%chance

12920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

448

168

Will Sam Bankman-Fried convert to Islam in prison?

Nov 9, 3:04 PMNov 17, 4:59 AM

7.27%chance

10525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

418

161

Will Sam Bankman-Fried still be alive at the beginning of 2030?

Jan 5, 7:10 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

92.04%chance

12363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

496

154

Will Steak n' Shake still be using 100% beef tallow for all fries at all locations at the end of 2030?

Mar 11, 8:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.25%chance

6210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

45

Will Jose Luis Ricon eat a meal of fried chicken w/Matt Fisher, joshcain.net, Jeremy Nixon, or Vishai Maini by EOY2027?

Apr 29, 9:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.56%chance

386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

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