OptionVotes
NO
YES
1439
697
OptionProbability
Other
Menlo Park, CA
Berkeley, CA
Stanford, CA
San Francisco, CA
Oakland, CA
Warren's Gore, VT
San Jose, CA
24
16
15
12
11
4
1285
943
At an EA (Effective Altruism) conference
LessWrong (LW) Meetup
Bay Area Taco Tuesday
Manifold Markets Manifest
Secular Solstice
66
7
6
Appeal or other delay into 2027
Judgment primarily for me (25-99%)
Judgment entirely for me (100%+)
Judgment approximately even (+/-25%)
Settlement to sell for >= $1.6M
Settlement to sell for < $1.6M
Judgment entirely for buyer (100%+)
Judgment primarily for buyer (25-99%)
27
21
multivariable calculus (18.02)
differential equations (18.03)
intro to cs (6.100a)
biology (7.012)
chemistry (5.111)
83
67
64
54
52
