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Prediction markets for Friends

Which member of our friend group will get married first?

Nov 16, 11:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

235281

OptionProbability

@hannah (mop 2023)

@theatypicallylargeL (balloon boy)

@astyerche (laughs at his own jokes)

@AlexCao (terrorist)

@cc6 (likes math, chess, speedcubing, and minecraft)

@potatopenguin (social guy)

@AaronCho (chojan horse)

27

21

12

11

10

10

8

Will our friend J. get a 6-pack by his wedding in 14 months?

Aug 7, 5:04 PMOct 31, 5:01 PM

58.16%chance

132336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1179

848

Will there be an AI Companion app (friend, girlfriend, partner etc.) with 500 Million users before 2035? 🤖❤🧍‍♂️🤝💻

Apr 13, 4:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

67.81%chance

351265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

932

Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling comparably to playing over call with a friend?

Dec 19, 6:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.06%chance

181137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1533

659

Will my friend deid91 have success on Twitch by 2027?

May 18, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.68%chance

91020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2020

495

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

Will Smiling Friends be renewed for a 6th season by Adult Swim by the end of 2026?

Sep 29, 8:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.77%chance

6616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

371

27

How many universities my friend applied to will he be accepted to?

Feb 26, 2:54 AMMay 2, 12:00 AM

4575

OptionProbability

8 - 11

12 - 15

4 - 7

16 - 19

20 - 24

71

13

8

5

3

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

Will my friend M.T. end up marrying J.N.?

Jan 8, 9:25 PMJan 15, 10:59 PM

33.31%chance

4160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

71

Will two of my friends break up by the end of the semester?

Jan 20, 9:45 AMJul 2, 11:59 PM

51%chance

3139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

Will the first account to surpass me on the Creator leaderboard be found to be a friend or alt of BTE within 12 months?

Feb 27, 6:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.95%chance

461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

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