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Prediction markets for Friends

Which member of our friend group will get married first?

Nov 16, 11:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

235281

OptionProbability

@hannah (mop 2023)

@theatypicallylargeL (balloon boy)

@astyerche (laughs at his own jokes)

@AlexCao (terrorist)

@cc6 (likes math, chess, speedcubing, and minecraft)

@potatopenguin (social guy)

@AaronCho (chojan horse)

27

21

12

11

10

10

8

Will our friend J. get a 6-pack by his wedding in 14 months?

Aug 7, 5:04 PMOct 31, 5:01 PM

59.78%chance

142376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1219

820

Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling comparably to playing over call with a friend?

Dec 19, 6:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.53%chance

231822

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2437

414

Will there be an AI Companion app (friend, girlfriend, partner etc.) with 500 Million users before 2035? 🤖❤🧍‍♂️🤝💻

Apr 13, 4:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

67.81%chance

351265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

932

Will my friend deid91 have success on Twitch by 2027?

May 18, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.61%chance

101025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2025

494

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

Will my friend M accept that he doesn´t annoy me?

Apr 15, 6:07 PMDec 31, 7:06 PM

38.89%chance

3266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

798

Who will be the next Friend (from Friends) to die?

Oct 30, 12:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6209

OptionProbability

Matt LeBlanc

David Schwimmer

Courteney Cox

Jennifer Aniston

Lisa Kudrow

40

26

16

9

9

Will two of my friends break up by the end of the semester?

Jan 20, 9:45 AMJul 2, 11:59 PM

50.95%chance

4140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

981

Is 10 a friendly number?

Sep 17, 10:21 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31.45%chance

341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

76

Will my friend Evan get married by the end of 2027?

Oct 9, 8:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.18%chance

531

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

76

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