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Prediction markets for FRO

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.65%chance

270270174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5877

4399

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Nov 8, 11:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35%chance

9038240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2325737

OptionProbability

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

40-50%

80-90%

30-40%

≥90%

<30%

24

23

23

12

10

4

4

1

Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?

Sep 15, 5:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60.2%chance

836669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

677

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 7:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48%chance

456619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

963

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.9%chance

194054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4453

1165

Any FrontierMath Open Problems problem solved before March?

Jan 27, 6:40 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

41%chance

252128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

834

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2030?

Apr 8, 8:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

35%chance

381866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1416

634

Will React still be the most popular front-end framework in 2030?

Jul 8, 3:12 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

42.1%chance

181627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

853

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Will Sommers torture any of the female strawhats or Rhipley in front of Sanji by the end of Elbaph?

Feb 3, 2:37 AMApr 30, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Both

Just Rhipley

Just strawhat women(Nami, Robin)

33

33

33

Will the relative ratio of FRO to academia funding 10x between 2025 and 2027?

Oct 27, 12:30 AM

00

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