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Prediction markets for FRO

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

298803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15025

6656

Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?

Aug 6, 8:03 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

24.05%chance

587915

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5483

2860

Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?

Sep 15, 5:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60.69%chance

846679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

687

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.01%chance

216599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5609

1010

Will Elsa come out as Lesbian in Frozen 3?

Mar 21, 7:35 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

8.39%chance

716479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3617

818

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

185405

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10000

10000

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

Nov 18, 8:23 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

95.69%chance

235289

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4731

213

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2030?

Apr 8, 8:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

38.22%chance

391916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

684

Will React still be the most popular front-end framework in 2030?

Jul 8, 3:12 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

43.65%chance

201820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1136

880

Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.65%chance

24867

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

979

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Will the relative ratio of FRO to academia funding 10x between 2025 and 2027?

Oct 27, 12:30 AM

00

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