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Prediction markets for FRO

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.47%chance

292287764

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7849

3528

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Nov 8, 11:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.08%chance

11442405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

687

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3340376

OptionProbability

60-70%

70-80%

50-60%

80-90%

40-50%

≥90%

30-40%

<30%

29

25

19

11

8

4

3

1

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 7:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39%chance

608337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1254

802

Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?

Sep 15, 5:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60.2%chance

836669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

677

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.72%chance

205734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4744

1120

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

154159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13624

8759

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

Nov 18, 8:23 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

91.72%chance

193739

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3341

301

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2030?

Apr 8, 8:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

35%chance

381866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1416

634

Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.98%chance

16402

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

969

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Will the relative ratio of FRO to academia funding 10x between 2025 and 2027?

Oct 27, 12:30 AM

00

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