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Prediction markets for FRO

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.46%chance

283283146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6817

3928

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Nov 8, 11:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.71%chance

10641414

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1402

713

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3035831

OptionProbability

60-70%

70-80%

50-60%

80-90%

40-50%

30-40%

≥90%

<30%

26

25

19

11

9

4

4

1

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 7:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.14%chance

587850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

947

Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?

Sep 15, 5:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60.2%chance

836669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

677

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.9%chance

194054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4453

1165

SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)

Oct 9, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.59%chance

332308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2030?

Apr 8, 8:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

35%chance

381866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1416

634

Will React still be the most popular front-end framework in 2030?

Jul 8, 3:12 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

44.9%chance

191677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

903

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

3192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

981

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Will the relative ratio of FRO to academia funding 10x between 2025 and 2027?

Oct 27, 12:30 AM

00

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