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Prediction markets for Frontline

How will the war in Ukraine end?

Sep 3, 6:05 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

422699

OptionProbability

Freezing of Frontline without official negotions

Peace treaty

One side wins

Other

35

32

25

8

By 2050, will autonomous robots completely replace human soldiers in frontline combat roles?⚔️🤖⚔️

Feb 3, 1:28 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9.56%chance

192233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1595

851

Will drones make humans with rifles obsolete until 2035?

Oct 12, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.06%chance

121025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1996

501

Humanoid robot kills human in Ukrain war in 2026?

Mar 15, 2:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.95%chance

10875

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

839

When is Russia going to conquer the Donbas region.

Jun 22, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10286

OptionProbability

2027

Never

2026

2028

2029

2030

37

37

10

6

5

4

Zelenskyy dies by end of 2026?

Nov 17, 1:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.5%chance

9253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

292

34

Will "Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 14, 5:57 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

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