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Prediction markets for FSD

The First Delivered Tesla with Unsupervised FSD will...

Dec 5, 5:27 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

96303

OptionProbability

Have a front facing bumper camera.

Have a screen in the back row.

Have a steering wheel.

Run on a AI4/HW4 computer.

Run on a AI5 computer.

Be a Two Seater.

77

76

74

61

44

34

When will Unsupervised FSD be available on Teslas with HW4/AI4?

Oct 21, 6:05 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

82162

OptionProbability

2026

2034+

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2025

34

26

23

20

14

14

14

14

13

1

When will Unsupervised FSD be available on Teslas with HW3?

Oct 21, 5:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

41600

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2034+

2033

2025

20

20

20

20

20

20

14

14

10

3

When will Tesla FSD (supervised) be widely available in the EU?

Dec 15, 2:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31485

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Nov 2026

After 2027-01-01

Before Sep 2026

Before July 2026

Before May 2026

Before Mar 2026

55

50

46

42

31

29

16

Will Tesla Fsd ever be better than a human driver

Aug 3, 4:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

84.04%chance

18783

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

773

US air traffic control (atc) has FSD autopilot by end of 2030

Feb 6, 2:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.87%chance

5209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

222

45

Will Tesla increase fsd subscription price by eoy 2027?

Jan 25, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.29%chance

3125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

202

50

Will I regret my FSD purchase?

Feb 3, 6:53 AMJul 1, 5:49 AM

35.73%chance

8123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

75

Will I regret my FSD purchase in 2 years?

Feb 3, 6:24 PMFeb 3, 6:23 PM

47.61%chance

9104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Video of Chinese politician actually riding in a car in China with Tesla FSD, by mid 2026

Apr 29, 7:54 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

27.35%chance

379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

94

Full service Tesla charging stations for fsd drivers by mid 2027

Jan 13, 5:17 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

36.94%chance

458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

77

Will a hardware 3 tesla vehicle get an official hardware FSD upgrade by the end of 2026?

Feb 3, 9:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

41.27%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

88

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