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Prediction markets for FT
Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?
Dec 13, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.47%chance
4361271
OptionVotes
11722
4317
Which of these mainstream artists (or bands) will credit an AI in a song release? (Kanye ft. Suno, or Drake ft. ChatGPT)
Apr 4, 1:27 PMApr 4, 1:30 PM
362823
OptionProbability
85
51
40
30
25
23
19
19
19
19
19
18
17
17
17
16
13
13
13
11
11
11
10
7
6
Taylor Swift releases a song crediting an AI system before 2026 (Ex: Taylor Swift ft. Suno)?
Apr 4, 9:57 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM
5.07%chance
322229
OptionVotes
1837
877
Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?
Oct 29, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
19.52%chance
292067
OptionVotes
1836
655
What parts of Florida will be under water by 2100? [ ADD RESPONSES ]
May 27, 6:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
121511
OptionProbability
63
22
8
What will appear in Survivor 50 (that were featured in the fan vote)?
Feb 25, 9:23 AMJul 4, 3:59 PM
51430
OptionProbability
93
72
72
50
50
45
41
37
37
35
20
15
OptionProbability
35
17
16
12
6
4
3
2
2
2
Will someone create a statue of Jose Luis Ricon >= 160 ft tall by EOY 2040?
Apr 15, 2:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.51%chance
5440
OptionVotes
460
22
Will KIRAC episode 27 ft. Michel Houellebecq be released before 2026?
Jun 10, 4:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
72.02%chance
5114
OptionVotes
160
62
If Colossal Biosciences announces the de-extinction of the woolly mammoth, what will be true about the creatures?
May 16, 9:20 PMJan 1, 10:07 PM
392
OptionProbability
72
59
55
24
24
Will amusement ride manufacturer RMC build a gigacoaster (height or drop >= 300 ft) by 2030?
Dec 27, 8:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
52.44%chance
15
OptionVotes
105
95
Will United Parks & Resorts Inc. open a rollercoaster with a height >= 300 ft before 2028?
Dec 9, 4:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100