OptionProbability
electing a PM who contemporaneously describes himself as a socialist
Any Overseas Territory or Crown Dependency no longer under British sovereignty (de jure, even if temporarily)
Coronation of King William
A major financial crisis (40% drawdown of FTSE 100)
Rejoining the European Customs Union
The House of Lords is either abolished or democratically elected
A Prime Minister not from the Conservative or Labour parties
a year where population declines by 1%
A year with inflation >10%
A game of thrones sequel (not a prequel)
A ≤500-member House of Commons is elected (incl. Sinn Féin)
Winning the FIFA world cup
Republic
Any part of the territory of the UK proper as of 2024 ceases to be under British sovereignty
UK invades a foreign country with >10k ground troops
House of Commons elections use a different voting method than "name one and shut up"
rejoining the European Union
Two new monarchs after Charles III
joining the Euro
A year with higher GDP (PPP) per capita than Canada
Has an NFL franchise
annexation by the USA
100
97
96
70
67
66
65
50
48
44
41
39
37
36
28
27
25
14
7
