OptionProbability
electing a PM who contemporaneously describes himself as a socialist
Coronation of King William
Any Overseas Territory or Crown Dependency no longer under British sovereignty (de jure, even if temporarily)
A major financial crisis (40% drawdown of FTSE 100)
Rejoining the European Customs Union
A Prime Minister not from the Conservative or Labour parties
a year where population declines by 1%
A year with inflation >10%
The House of Lords is either abolished or democratically elected
A game of thrones sequel (not a prequel)
A ≤500-member House of Commons is elected (incl. Sinn Féin)
Winning the FIFA world cup
Republic
Any part of the territory of the UK proper as of 2024 ceases to be under British sovereignty
House of Commons elections use a different voting method than "name one and shut up"
rejoining the European Union
UK invades a foreign country with >10k ground troops
A year with higher GDP (PPP) per capita than Canada
joining the Euro
Two new monarchs after Charles III
Has an NFL franchise
annexation by the USA
100
97
70
67
66
65
60
50
48
44
41
37
36
34
25
23
22
14
3
MGC: Vanguard Mega Cap ETF (CRSP US Mega Cap Index)
VWO: Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap China A Inclusion Index)
VOO: Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VONE: Vanguard Russell 1000 ETF
VFMF: Vanguard U.S. Multifactor ETF
VEA: Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (FTSE Developed All Cap ex US Index)
VT: Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (FTSE Global All Cap Index)
35
19
15
10
9
4
OptionVotes
NO
YES
499
156
64
