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Prediction markets for FTX

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.3%chance

15386753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6266

1436

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Dec 13, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.47%chance

4361271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11722

4317

FTX Recovery %

Nov 11, 10:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

97.85%chance

8126849

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8103

156

Will FTX creditors get back more than 100%?

Mar 3, 12:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

97.14%chance

5426604

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4860

89

Was SBF behind the FTX hack?

Nov 12, 6:06 AMJan 1, 8:01 AM

3.51%chance

12519967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11049

988

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

611111

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2025

86

65

53

17

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will FTX pay more in taxes to the IRS than it returns to creditors?

Dec 12, 9:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

8.59%chance

141876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2190

733

What do you predict Sam Bankman-Fried's net worth will be on Nov 16, 2025? (i.e., ~3 years from the FTX crises)

Nov 16, 3:29 PMOct 15, 3:59 AM

48%chance

201863

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1347

750

Will any FTXFF grantee be legally compelled to return funds due to FTX's bankruptcy?

Nov 14, 6:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34%chance

191501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

849

What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?

Feb 9, 2:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.04%chance

12728

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1258

854

What % of FTX money will be clawed back from grantees, resolves to my best guess?

Jan 12, 6:43 PMMar 19, 5:43 PM

20.4%chance

11678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

958

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