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Prediction markets for FTX

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

73.2%chance

15486803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6125

1486

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Dec 13, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.47%chance

4361271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11722

4317

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

728398

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2025

84

60

32

1

FTX Recovery %

Nov 11, 10:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

97.85%chance

8126849

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8103

156

Will FTX creditors get back more than 100%?

Mar 3, 12:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

97.15%chance

5426609

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4865

89

Was SBF behind the FTX hack?

Nov 12, 6:06 AMJan 1, 8:01 AM

3.6%chance

12520188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10828

996

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will FTX pay more in taxes to the IRS than it returns to creditors?

Dec 12, 9:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

8.59%chance

141876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2190

733

Will any FTXFF grantee be legally compelled to return funds due to FTX's bankruptcy?

Nov 14, 6:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34%chance

191501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

849

Will Brett Harrison (previously President of FTX U.S.) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 15, 3:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.12%chance

15786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

927

What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?

Feb 9, 2:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.04%chance

12728

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1258

854

What % of FTX money will be clawed back from grantees, resolves to my best guess?

Jan 12, 6:43 PMMar 19, 5:43 PM

20.4%chance

11678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

958

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