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Prediction markets for FTX US

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

729648

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2025

84

60

24

1

FTX US Recovery %

Nov 11, 11:41 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

98.11%chance

4714443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5488

208

What percent of the deposits will FTX US users be able to get back?

Dec 1, 5:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.07%chance

396303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2960

464

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

What percentage of their money will FTX customers get back, on average?

Dec 23, 2:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

98.1%chance

215214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3273

183

What % of their deposits will the typical FTX depositor with less than $100k get back? Resolves to %

Jan 11, 9:49 PMJan 18, 9:49 PM

96.1%chance

213351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2981

630

Will Manifold be able to repurchase our shares from Alameda?

Nov 18, 6:05 PMDec 18, 6:04 PM

13.29%chance

302368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2199

664

Will there be a Manifold movie in the next 20 years?

Jan 24, 6:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.44%chance

17376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

910

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