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Prediction markets for FTX US

By when will most 50k+ FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15114321

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2028

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2025

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2026

83

58

0

0

0

FTX US Recovery %

Nov 11, 11:41 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

97.93%chance

4714766

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5165

214

What percent of the deposits will FTX US users be able to get back?

Dec 1, 5:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

99%chance

4012332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8974

347

What percentage of their money will FTX customers get back, on average?

Dec 23, 2:13 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

99%chance

237277

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5314

155

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will Manifold be able to repurchase our shares from Alameda?

Nov 18, 6:05 PMDec 18, 6:04 PM

13.29%chance

302368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2199

664

Will there be a Manifold movie in the next 20 years?

Jan 24, 6:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40%chance

18576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

789

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