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Prediction markets for Function Health

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.71%chance

156504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6529

2770

When will Donald Trump Die

Jul 1, 5:43 AMJan 1, 2:10 AM

393502

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2025-2029

2035-2039

2040-2044

2045-2050

35

33

20

9

2

What will I be diagnosed with?

Apr 28, 10:16 AMOct 22, 9:20 AM

211517

OptionProbability

Autism

ADHD

Attachment Disorder

Dysthymia

C-PDSD

Personality Disorder

Intellectual giftedness (130+ IQ)

Substance Use Disorder

Bipolar Disorder

Long COVID

87

86

75

51

38

31

28

23

17

11

Will a cryonics patient be successfully biologically revived before 2040?

Mar 17, 2:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.72%chance

20704

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

942

Will someone win the Healthspan XPRIZE of 101m restoring muscle, cognition, immune function by minimum 10yrs by 2030?

Nov 29, 11:58 PMDec 7, 7:59 AM

27.95%chance

9442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1484

1113

When will 25% of broiler chickens in the UK be slower-growing breeds?

Apr 30, 9:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3319

OptionProbability

Before 2034

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

68

66

61

57

48

41

26

Am I Autistic?

Dec 13, 6:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.98%chance

22284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

214

154

If I’m successfully cryopreserved, will I be revived?

Jul 24, 10:00 PMJul 24, 9:54 PM

16.53%chance

11255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

225

45

When will Tumbles no longer need sleep? (<3 hours)

Feb 10, 1:55 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7248

OptionProbability

Before death of Tumbles

Before 2084

Before 2069

Before 2042

50

47

20

17

Will the Kernel Flow 2 be used for a neuroimaging study of sex on psychedelics by EOY2027?

Apr 10, 9:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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