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Prediction markets for Fund Accounts

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.79%chance

1964882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6128

4633

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.91%chance

9443785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

921

Will Mamdani stop implementing policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age?

Nov 28, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3019658

OptionProbability

NO

YES

Other

Only YES and NO are the main outcomes. All other options would not affect the main YES or NO outcomes.

94

2

2

1

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Will the US Federal Government spend more than 1/1000th of its budget on AI Safety by 2028?

Aug 12, 9:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.42%chance

353823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1169

949

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Toronto allows sixplexes everywhere?

Jun 28, 4:44 AMDec 21, 2:30 AM

24.67%chance

61821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1747

572

Will a company by @barak raise 2mil before the end of 2025?

Mar 17, 1:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.18%chance

11702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

698

70

By 2034, what is the probability that a dollar donated to Daffy will be used for unintended purposes?

Mar 9, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.31%chance

5490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

588

78

Will Gwern Branwen, openly and under his real name, get employed in 2025?

Nov 15, 6:45 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

10.92%chance

6310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

286

35

OpenAI collapses or gets acquired before IPO?

Nov 22, 12:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.12%chance

6155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Winner of the 2026 PDC World Darts Championship

Nov 23, 10:19 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

2103

OptionProbability

Luke Littler

Luke Humphries

Michael van Gerwen

Stephen Bunting

Jonny Clayton

Danny Noppert

James Wade

Chris Dobey

Gerwyn Price

Gian van Veen

Josh Rock

Ross Smith

Martin Schindler

Gary Anderson

Nathan Aspinall

Damon Heta

91

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

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