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Prediction markets for Fund of Funds

Will the fed funds rate be below 4% at anytime by the end of 2026?

Oct 17, 11:18 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

82.38%chance

2635273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1486

841

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Will lighthaven be shut down in 2025 due to lack of funds?

Nov 5, 1:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.39%chance

135095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5335

187

Will there be a US Sovereign Wealth Fund established by the federal government by the end of the 119th congress?

Nov 21, 6:49 PMJan 7, 4:59 AM

27.76%chance

122331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1555

155

Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.

Sep 22, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.84%chance

191189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1547

843

Across, 2025 will a majority of EA funding rounds have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met?

Sep 22, 11:29 PMSep 30, 3:59 AM

13.59%chance

14815

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

830

What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?

Feb 9, 2:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.04%chance

12728

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1258

854

Will "Store Now Decrypt Later" attacks be responsible for the theft of >$1B of funds by 2030?

Mar 20, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.82%chance

11682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1566

812

Will any lawmakers use the threat of AI to justify funding space exploration before 2026?

Apr 22, 5:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.26%chance

16500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

975

Will the majority of developed nations prioritize funding for longevity research over space exploration by 2035?

Jun 29, 5:49 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

46.25%chance

10344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

928

Will any fund eclipse the size of the SoftBank Vision Fund by 2030?

Dec 9, 8:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.16%chance

14134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

972

Will >50% of total allocated funding to clean energy provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act be gutted by 2028?

Jul 16, 5:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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