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Prediction markets for Fundamental AI Research

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Sep 23, 2:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.33%chance

9110673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1412

539

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:15 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.29%chance

214300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2687

574

LeCun to leave Meta in 2025

Nov 17, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.71%chance

261915

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

71.78%chance

201532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

734

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Which positive news will make 2025 world-wide headlines?

Jan 4, 4:58 PMJan 11, 10:59 PM

161278

OptionProbability

Geopolitics

Technology

Medical/Healthcare

Economy

Fundamental research

Space Exploration

Environment and sustainability

Art and culture

Human Rights

Society

Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

69

68

63

62

60

56

48

41

41

41

34

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Nov 20, 8:19 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

67.2%chance

17676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143

70

Do you think AI will help to reduce breast cancer by the end of 2030?

Oct 22, 9:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85%chance

7218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

240

90

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?

Jul 6, 9:38 PMJan 1, 10:38 PM

75.28%chance

675

OptionVotes

NO

YES

245

131

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