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Prediction markets for Funds From Operations

Will Iran strike US soil this year?

Mar 11, 8:32 PMMar 12, 11:59 PM

18.13%chance

8911664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2125

471

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10062

2804

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.54%chance

63393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2425

412

Will the German Interior Ministry succeed in banning the right-wing "Compact" magazine?

Jul 16, 8:09 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

16.64%chance

71820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2238

447

Will Nectome have a legally separate nonprofit dedicated to storing patients by the end of the year?

Mar 18, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.16%chance

91385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1309

764

Will the Lazuli telescope see first light before 2030?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

44.83%chance

7696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

901

US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?

Feb 13, 7:20 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

48.11%chance

17694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

963

Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?

Jul 3, 9:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

40.69%chance

3391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

922

When will Praxis announce that it is ending operations and returning all remaining funds to investors?

Dec 12, 6:23 PMDec 19, 11:59 PM

9373

OptionProbability

After June 30th 2028

Before Jan 1 2026

After Jan 1 2026 but before Jan 1 2027

After Jan 1 2027 but before June 30th 2028

48

26

18

8

Will there be a single-person funded, owned and operated unicorn before 2050?

Aug 24, 7:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34%chance

12248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

Feb 4, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.46%chance

4215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

932

When will Queenslink be operational?

Nov 6, 5:00 AMJan 2, 4:46 AM

00

OptionProbability

2028-2031

2032-2035

2036-2039

2039-2042

Later than 2042 or never

20

20

20

20

20

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