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Prediction markets for Funds From Operations

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10062

2804

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.12%chance

235262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2144

735

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.46%chance

73401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2433

411

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will Nectome have a legally separate nonprofit dedicated to storing patients by the end of the year?

Mar 18, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.05%chance

121605

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1529

654

US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?

Feb 13, 7:20 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

44.57%chance

17844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

897

Will the Lazuli telescope see first light before 2030?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

44.83%chance

7696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

901

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

Feb 4, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.13%chance

5438

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

902

Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?

Jul 3, 9:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

40%chance

3408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

910

When will Praxis announce that it is ending operations and returning all remaining funds to investors?

Dec 12, 6:23 PMDec 19, 11:59 PM

9373

OptionProbability

After June 30th 2028

Before Jan 1 2026

After Jan 1 2026 but before Jan 1 2027

After Jan 1 2027 but before June 30th 2028

48

26

18

8

Will there be a single-person funded, owned and operated unicorn before 2050?

Aug 24, 7:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.07%chance

13258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

When will Queenslink be operational?

Nov 6, 5:00 AMJan 2, 4:46 AM

00

OptionProbability

2028-2031

2032-2035

2036-2039

2039-2042

Later than 2042 or never

20

20

20

20

20

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