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Prediction markets for Funds From Operations

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.78%chance

235162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

748

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.54%chance

63393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2425

412

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will the German Interior Ministry succeed in banning the right-wing "Compact" magazine?

Jul 16, 8:09 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

16.64%chance

71820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2238

447

Will the Lazuli telescope see first light before 2030?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

44.83%chance

7696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

901

Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?

Jul 3, 9:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

40.69%chance

3391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

922

When will Praxis announce that it is ending operations and returning all remaining funds to investors?

Dec 12, 6:23 PMDec 19, 11:59 PM

9373

OptionProbability

After June 30th 2028

Before Jan 1 2026

After Jan 1 2026 but before Jan 1 2027

After Jan 1 2027 but before June 30th 2028

48

26

18

8

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

Feb 4, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.46%chance

4215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

932

Will there be a single-person funded, owned and operated unicorn before 2050?

Aug 24, 7:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.06%chance

10186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

85

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

When will Queenslink be operational?

Nov 6, 5:00 AMJan 2, 4:46 AM

00

OptionProbability

2028-2031

2032-2035

2036-2039

2039-2042

Later than 2042 or never

20

20

20

20

20

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