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Prediction markets for Fusion

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

32.81%chance

6762104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

949

Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2029?

May 10, 8:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.66%chance

414675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3003

1084

Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?

Jan 26, 11:48 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

54.06%chance

804484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1490

798

Will we get fusion reactors before 2041?

Mar 1, 11:45 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

68.42%chance

234314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1342

790

Will we get fusion reactors before 2040?

Feb 23, 12:07 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

63.68%chance

264092

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1285

791

When will fusion power become viable?

Dec 4, 6:12 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

68.89%chance

563928

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1580

891

Will Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?

Jun 21, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.37%chance

153230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1977

506

Will we get fusion drives before 2040?

Jun 2, 5:19 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

23.7%chance

152898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1794

557

Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?

Mar 26, 6:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.47%chance

852787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

1348

Will Helion Deliver 10 Megawatts of Fusion Power to Microsoft by 2029?

May 10, 7:44 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.98%chance

152084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2636

1458

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.99%chance

211304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11052

9048

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power by 2100?

May 14, 11:00 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

57.17%chance

19714

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

879

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