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Prediction markets for Fusion

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

35.64%chance

7262178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

946

Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2029?

May 10, 8:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.66%chance

414675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3003

1084

Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?

Jan 26, 11:48 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

57%chance

834590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1435

866

Will we get fusion reactors before 2041?

Mar 1, 11:45 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

71.37%chance

264519

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1452

743

Will we get fusion reactors before 2040?

Feb 23, 12:07 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

64.06%chance

284388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1301

788

When will fusion power become viable?

Dec 4, 6:12 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

69.37%chance

563948

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1600

882

Will Helion Deliver 10 Megawatts of Fusion Power to Microsoft by 2029?

May 10, 7:44 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10.94%chance

203366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3826

1271

Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?

Mar 26, 6:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.83%chance

893093

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1791

1194

Will we get fusion drives before 2040?

Jun 2, 5:19 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

23.7%chance

152898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1794

557

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.4%chance

272482

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10923

9155

Will Helion deploy a commercial fusion reactor before 2040?

Sep 27, 8:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.68%chance

231140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1153

734

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power by 2100?

May 14, 11:00 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

57.17%chance

19714

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

879

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