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Prediction markets for Fusion

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

40%chance

7462310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

838

Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2029?

May 10, 8:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

6%chance

458578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6424

690

Will Helion Deliver 10 Megawatts of Fusion Power to Microsoft by 2029?

May 10, 7:44 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9.94%chance

264934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4136

1235

Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?

Jan 26, 11:48 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

67.41%chance

874925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

1176

Will we get fusion reactors before 2040?

Feb 23, 12:07 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

65.5%chance

314887

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1345

764

Will we get fusion reactors before 2041?

Mar 1, 11:45 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

71.4%chance

294727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1453

742

When will fusion power become viable?

Dec 4, 6:12 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

69.37%chance

563948

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1600

882

Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?

Mar 26, 6:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.65%chance

943688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2305

958

Will we get fusion drives before 2040?

Jun 2, 5:19 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

23.7%chance

152898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1794

557

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.45%chance

282492

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10933

9146

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power by 2100?

May 14, 11:00 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

57.17%chance

19714

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

879

By Dec 31, 2035, will any nuclear fusion power plant have delivered at least 100 MW of net electrical power, 30 day ave.

Oct 3, 11:21 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

10.57%chance

5333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10062

9455

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