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Prediction markets for Fusion

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

32.81%chance

6762104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

949

Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2029?

May 10, 8:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.66%chance

414675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3003

1084

Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?

Jan 26, 11:48 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

55.17%chance

804509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1469

823

Will we get fusion reactors before 2041?

Mar 1, 11:45 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

70.74%chance

254459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

753

Will we get fusion reactors before 2040?

Feb 23, 12:07 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

67.13%chance

274338

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1397

738

When will fusion power become viable?

Dec 4, 6:12 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

69.37%chance

563948

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1600

882

Will we get fusion drives before 2040?

Jun 2, 5:19 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

23.7%chance

152898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1794

557

Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?

Mar 26, 6:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.93%chance

862837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

1371

Will Helion Deliver 10 Megawatts of Fusion Power to Microsoft by 2029?

May 10, 7:44 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.92%chance

172098

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2645

1457

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

53.06%chance

231747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10631

9406

Will Helion deploy a commercial fusion reactor before 2040?

Sep 27, 8:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.68%chance

231140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1153

734

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power by 2100?

May 14, 11:00 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

57.17%chance

19714

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

879

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