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Prediction markets for Future Fund

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.68%chance

322858510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6769

3640

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.71%chance

339104484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5342

3569

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.85%chance

15687758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4435

2419

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.79%chance

1964882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6128

4633

Will Mamdani stop implementing policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age?

Nov 28, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3121224

OptionProbability

NO

Other

YES

Only YES and NO are the main outcomes. All other options would not affect the main YES or NO outcomes.

97

2

1

1

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7704

2333

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.67%chance

175492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10016

2817

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Feb 6, 4:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

231270

OptionProbability

Arthropoda Foundation

Other

Shrimp Welfare Initiative

Rethink Priorities

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Animal Welfare Fund (EA Funds)

Insect Welfare Research Society

Long-term Future Fund

Lightcone Infrastructure

Center on Long-Term Risk

Fish Welfare Initiative

Do not donate (ie Aaron keeps the $20 - maybe but not explicitly to donate later)

Center for Reducing Suffering

The Humane League

Center for the Governance of AI

Holly Elmore / Pause AI

Rethink Probabilities

GiveWell

Patient Philanthropy Fund

NYU Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program

Sentience Institute

Centre for Long-Term Resilience

Centre for Effective Altruism

Qualia Research Institute

Longview Emerging Challenges Fund

ALLFED

14

14

13

13

10

8

7

6

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?

Feb 9, 2:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.04%chance

12728

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1258

854

When will Queenslink be operational?

Nov 6, 5:00 AMJan 2, 4:46 AM

00

OptionProbability

2028-2031

2032-2035

2036-2039

2039-2042

Later than 2042 or never

20

20

20

20

20

What is the FAIREST rule about clawing back FTX money from the charities that the FTX Future Fund gave to?

Jun 18, 5:12 PM

100

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