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Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.79%chance

1964882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6128

4633

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8215250

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

January 6th

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Bitcoin

Violent repression of women in Iran

New York v Trump 2024

Tigray War

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

97

94

88

86

82

82

77

75

63

61

61

57

54

51

40

21

13

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7704

2333

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

6.31%chance

906445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1978

1525

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2037

Dec 22, 7:04 PMJun 30, 6:59 AM

46.38%chance

161699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

930

Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2028

Dec 22, 6:14 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

18.89%chance

161663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2072

483

In 2025, will I teach people that Projective Geometric Algebra (PGA)'s "dual" is similar to the Fourier transform?

Sep 20, 7:52 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.54%chance

191347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1567

420

Will heart disease no longer be the leading cause of death in the US in any year prior to 2031?

Jun 27, 3:10 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

33%chance

261165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

757

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

73.06%chance

14725

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1645

852

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