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Prediction markets for Future Publishing

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.61%chance

2267678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6755

3832

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29364

2889

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8519498

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

January 6th

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

Bitcoin

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Violent repression of women in Iran

New York v Trump 2024

Russia's takeover of the US political establishment

Tigray War

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

98

97

88

82

82

82

78

75

63

63

62

57

54

53

51

40

21

13

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5.54%chance

928367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2247

1508

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7704

2333

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10062

2804

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.6%chance

143313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1316

760

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2037

Dec 22, 7:04 PMJun 30, 6:59 AM

46.38%chance

161699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

930

Will heart disease no longer be the leading cause of death in the US in any year prior to 2031?

Jun 27, 3:10 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

28.44%chance

271234

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

888

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1795

801

Will Ford Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 3.2

3.2 - 3.4

3.4 - 3.6

3.6 - 3.8

3.8 - 4.0

Above 4.0

17

17

17

17

17

17

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