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Prediction markets for Gain

Will an LLM Agent discover a single significant contribution (+100 elo gain ) over the leading chess engine before 2028?

Nov 4, 5:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.64%chance

98202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17028

5873

Will there be any tax on unrealized capital gains in the USA before eoy2028?

Aug 20, 7:23 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

11.75%chance

334649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2741

365

Will Unreal Engine gain official WebGPU export support before Jan 1st 2027?

Jul 2, 7:12 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.24%chance

172838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3070

137

Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)

Oct 27, 4:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.55%chance

172445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1408

895

Will Sam Altman leverage OpenAI's success to substantial personal gain?

Sep 17, 6:10 AMDec 19, 4:59 AM

84.54%chance

282358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2235

508

Life Extension Velocity (LEV) - for every year we survive, we gain an extra year - by 2036?

Mar 11, 1:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.85%chance

131735

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

415

Will Martinique gain independence before 2030?

Jul 8, 4:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.4%chance

91568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

410

Will the Rockstar games workers gain union recognition before the release of GTAVI?

Dec 15, 11:25 PMJun 22, 10:59 PM

20.31%chance

91450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1981

505

Will my multi agent orchestration tool SWARM gain more than 100 stars on github by EOY?

Sep 27, 2:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.74%chance

4957

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1792

558

Will there be reports of an AI playing a significant role in biological gain-of-function research before 2030?

Jun 25, 1:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.14%chance

13569

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

932

Will at least 2 of Myself, Nathan young and Stefan Schubert be gainfully employed on Jan 1st 2035?

Jan 20, 7:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.26%chance

275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

975

Which religions will have gained in total self-identified practicing members from 2026 to 2057?

Oct 3, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Buddhist

Hindu

Jain

Sikh

50

50

50

50

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