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Prediction markets for Gains

Will there be any tax on unrealized capital gains in the USA before eoy2028?

Aug 20, 7:23 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

12.97%chance

334499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2591

386

Will Sam Altman leverage OpenAI's success to substantial personal gain?

Sep 17, 6:10 AMDec 19, 4:59 AM

84.54%chance

282358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2235

508

Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses in any month of 2026?

Jan 10, 1:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.11%chance

171619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1366

772

Fortune 500 company attributes >10% productivity gains to AI by Q2 2026?

Aug 8, 12:43 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

61.57%chance

10631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

790

SPY reaches 774 (20% gain from 645) before 516 (20% loss from 645)

Aug 14, 4:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.39%chance

5594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1161

862

Will there be reports of an AI playing a significant role in biological gain-of-function research before 2030?

Jun 25, 1:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.14%chance

13569

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

932

Roadtrip: will I be gainfully employed in one year?

Aug 2, 7:59 PMAug 1, 7:58 PM

42.14%chance

6433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

853

Will Russia's net territorial gain in February 2026 exceed 400km²?

Feb 4, 1:08 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

41.74%chance

6322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

846

Will Martinique gain independence before 2030?

Jul 8, 4:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.45%chance

7316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

841

Will at least 2 of Myself, Nathan young and Stefan Schubert be gainfully employed on Jan 1st 2035?

Jan 20, 7:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.26%chance

275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

975

Will the KMT gain, hold or lose seats in the 2026 City Mayor and County Magistrate elections in Taiwan?

Dec 23, 4:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Gain

Hold

Lose

33

33

33

Will the DPP gain, hold or lose seats in the 2026 City Mayor and County Magistrate elections in Taiwan?

Dec 23, 4:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Gain

Hold

Lose

33

33

33

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