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Prediction markets for Gaming

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

84.53%chance

612543987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6089

702

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70%chance

165101332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1634

294

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87%chance

27143410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4674

1450

When will a new mainline Animal Crossing game be released on a Nintendo console?

Sep 11, 9:12 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3824152

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

Not before 2030

2026

2025 or earlier

39

30

18

7

6

1

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1518931

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

25

20

18

16

16

4

1

In what state will the Kansas City Chiefs play a majority of their home games in the 2031 NFL season?

Jul 24, 2:54 AMJan 26, 5:59 AM

58053

OptionProbability

Kansas

Missouri

Other

68

32

0

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.26%chance

346935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5447

184

Donald Trump's 'Patriot Games' Actually Happen in 2026?

Dec 19, 12:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.14%chance

171540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2302

1667

The game awards 2026: Flute guy blows into >3 instruments

Dec 13, 4:15 AMDec 11, 4:15 AM

58.29%chance

11410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

85

Improve my game 🏊 [ADD OPTIONS]

May 26, 12:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Temporary

50

Where will the Athletics MLB team play their home games in 2028?

Jun 22, 11:13 PMApr 1, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Las Vegas (including Paradise)

Sacramento (including West Sacramento)

Somewhere within the San Francisco Bay Area

Somewhere else in California

Somewhere else outside California

20

20

20

20

20

Will the developers of the game Farlight 84 adding back jetpacks in next update?

Mar 29, 9:08 PMDec 30, 10:04 PM

00

OptionProbability

Yes

No

They wouldn't add jetpacks in the next update, but in the one after that yes

33

33

33

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