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Prediction markets for GAO

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.42%chance

8578624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23416

4271

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.07%chance

9318844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4716

4417

Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?

Oct 21, 5:26 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

17.1%chance

8712848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1660

1241

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

298803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15025

6656

Will there be a period of 12 contiguous months during which no new compute-SOTA LM is released, by Jan 1, 2033?

Jan 8, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.63%chance

385953

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1853

554

Will Andrew Gao become a Thiel fellow?

Feb 7, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.77%chance

14927

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

957

Will the Gaowangjie Crocodile Newt (Tylototriton gaowangjienensis) become Extinct by 2100?

Aug 27, 3:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.96%chance

3268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

754

312

Will someone write a fanfic featuring 3 of turntrout, quintin pope, Nora Melrose, Leo Gao, JDP, or repligate by EOY2026

Jun 11, 5:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.45%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129

77

Will Laura Gao take a course under Danielle Bassett, Ethan mollick, Robert ghrish, or M Kearns at Penn

Sep 18, 7:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Bradley Voytek (or Richard Gao/Tom Donoghue/any member of his lab) win Kavli Prize in Neuroscience by 2050?

Sep 21, 5:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Laura Gao become an interact fellow

Sep 19, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Would you rather vote for trump or laura gao?

Apr 6, 5:20 PM

00

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