GAO News

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

345343621

OptionProbability

Hong Wang

Jacob Tsimerman

Jack Thorne

John Pardon

Other

Will Sawin

Maria Colombo

Yu Deng

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Sam Raskin

Vesselin Dimitrov

Yibo Gao

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

Javier Fresan

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

Song Sun

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Aleksandr Logunov

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Alexander Efimov

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Xian-Jin Li

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Miguel Walsh

Igor Rodnianski

Hannah Larson

Justin Fields

Frederick Manners

Yuansi Chen

Tom Hutchcroft

yunqing tang

Noé Cruchet

Vincent Tassion

Tony Yu

David Budden

Ziyang Gao

Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis

Daniel Restrepo

Matteo Verni

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.04%chance

7975784

OptionVotes

YES

24743

4041

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.27%chance

9118824

OptionVotes

YES

4733

4397

Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?

Oct 21, 5:26 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

6.27%chance

738867

OptionVotes

YES

4011

973

Will there be a period of 12 contiguous months during which no new compute-SOTA LM is released, by Jan 1, 2033?

Jan 8, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.63%chance

385953

OptionVotes

YES

1853

554

How deep in the pipeline will each Hack Clubber be in June 2026?

Dec 22, 4:05 PMJun 1, 3:25 PM

284678

OptionProbability

@/Lucas11

@/izie

@dld

@Skylarstein

@jellywastaken

@Xelphyr (@/cafeEntity in Slack)

@Firepup650

Felix Gao

@/Rowan

@jollyroger182

According to all known laws of aviation, there is no way a bee should be able to fly. Its wings are too small to get its fat little body off the ground. The bee, of course, flies anyway because bees don't care what humans think is

@SuyashABadlyDrawnWobbler

@/Tim

@121

@sadeshmukh

@bohaska

@JeremyWoolley

@realDonaldTrump

Will Andrew Gao become a Thiel fellow?

Feb 7, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.39%chance

13877

OptionVotes

YES

994

981

Will the Gaowangjie Crocodile Newt (Tylototriton gaowangjienensis) become Extinct by 2100?

Aug 27, 3:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.96%chance

3268

OptionVotes

YES

754

312

Will someone write a fanfic featuring 3 of turntrout, quintin pope, Nora Melrose, Leo Gao, JDP, or repligate by EOY2026

Jun 11, 5:14 AMJun 19, 3:59 AM

39.31%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

124

Will Laura Gao become an interact fellow

Sep 19, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will Laura Gao take a course under Danielle Bassett, Ethan mollick, Robert ghrish, or M Kearns at Penn

Sep 18, 7:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will Bradley Voytek (or Richard Gao/Tom Donoghue/any member of his lab) win Kavli Prize in Neuroscience by 2050?

Sep 21, 5:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

GAO News

Prediction markets for GAO

Prediction markets for GAO

Prediction markets for GAO

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?

Will there be a period of 12 contiguous months during which no new compute-SOTA LM is released, by Jan 1, 2033?

How deep in the pipeline will each Hack Clubber be in June 2026?

Will Andrew Gao become a Thiel fellow?

Will the Gaowangjie Crocodile Newt (Tylototriton gaowangjienensis) become Extinct by 2100?

Will someone write a fanfic featuring 3 of turntrout, quintin pope, Nora Melrose, Leo Gao, JDP, or repligate by EOY2026

Will Laura Gao become an interact fellow

Will Laura Gao take a course under Danielle Bassett, Ethan mollick, Robert ghrish, or M Kearns at Penn

Will Bradley Voytek (or Richard Gao/Tom Donoghue/any member of his lab) win Kavli Prize in Neuroscience by 2050?

Latest stories