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Prediction markets for GASS

When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality?

Feb 24, 12:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

83435

OptionProbability

After 2035

Only after superintelligence is achieved

2031-2035

2029-2030

2027-2028

2026

Feb-June 2025

July-Dec 2025

69

49

45

35

20

10

0

0

Widespread use of disposable co2 scrubbing materials in power plants by 2050?

Aug 5, 12:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.92%chance

431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

91

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