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Prediction markets for Gates

Will Bill Gates be cryopreserved?

Aug 28, 7:08 AMSep 5, 6:59 AM

5.16%chance

212891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2578

832

Will Larian Studios release another Baldur's Gate game by 2033?

Dec 28, 6:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

20.56%chance

302137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

697

Will any car drive itself from the Empire State Building to the Golden Gate Bridge before April 2028?

Mar 14, 10:02 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

31.32%chance

351387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1371

650

When will Larian Studios announce Baldur's Gate 4?

Dec 28, 10:30 AMNov 13, 10:59 PM

201210

OptionProbability

Never

Other

2025

2026

2024

96

3

1

1

0

Will Waymo give public driverless rides across the Golden Gate Bridge by the end of 2026?

Mar 17, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.76%chance

151069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1312

834

Will Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2040?

Jan 19, 8:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65%chance

13524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

635

Will Bill Gates (Microsoft, philanthropy) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

May 11, 2:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.54%chance

8324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

494

120

Will Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2030?

Jan 19, 8:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.53%chance

13291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1247

915

Will P. D. Mangan die before Bill Gates?

Jan 31, 4:14 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

50.1%chance

8269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

137

116

Will a fully error corrected quantum computer capable of running 100 million gates be created before 2030?

Aug 2, 1:33 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

13.54%chance

4195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

40

Will a logic gate, exotic transistor, or circuit motif be named after Richard Ngo?

Apr 1, 10:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.16%chance

4109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

113

Will a logic gate, exotic transistor, or circuit motif be named after Michael Nielsen OR Adam marblestone?

Apr 1, 10:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.1%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

92

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