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Prediction markets for Gates

Will Bill Gates (68) have another pie thrown in his face before he turns 70?

Dec 16, 6:52 PMOct 28, 10:59 PM

5.2%chance

182279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2184

859

Will Larian Studios release another Baldur's Gate game by 2033?

Dec 28, 6:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

22.22%chance

292037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

699

Will Bill Gates be cryopreserved?

Aug 28, 7:08 AMSep 5, 6:59 AM

8.8%chance

201814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1578

904

Will Bill Gates make any Tweeter(X) posts in 2025?

Feb 4, 1:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

99%chance

91757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1851

29

Will any car drive itself from the Empire State Building to the Golden Gate Bridge before April 2028?

Mar 14, 10:02 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

30.83%chance

351372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1342

622

Will Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2025?

Jan 19, 8:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

93.79%chance

17641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1496

933

Will Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2040?

Jan 19, 8:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65%chance

13524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

635

Will Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2035?

Jan 19, 8:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

90.36%chance

9436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

479

85

Will "The Pearly Gates" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 12, 5:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.11%chance

2159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

815

Will Bill Gates be alive through the end of 2030?

Jan 19, 8:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.14%chance

12122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

963

Will a logic gate, exotic transistor, or circuit motif be named after Richard Ngo?

Apr 1, 10:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.16%chance

4109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

113

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

25

25

25

25

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