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Prediction markets for Gateway

Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?

Nov 13, 11:21 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

92519

OptionProbability

2029

2028

2027

2026

94

92

89

0

Federal judge charged with treason/sedition before end of 2026?

Mar 24, 6:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.89%chance

221791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1159

366

Lunar Gateway first occupied by a crew before 1/1/2028?

Mar 19, 7:44 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

1.56%chance

81305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1367

32

Lunar Gateway first occupied by a crew before 1/1/2029?

Apr 5, 7:43 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

1.92%chance

12886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

924

14

Is astrology a "gateway pseudoscience"?

Aug 20, 11:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.23%chance

45885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1167

886

Will the first Lunar Gateway modules launch before 2028?

Jan 13, 4:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.06%chance

9858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

394

25

Which of the following media outlets will close or undergo significant downsizing/restructuring before 2028?

Mar 2, 3:42 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

15766

OptionProbability

Epoch Times

NPR

Wired

Time

TMZ

Los Angeles Times

New York Post

USA Today

The Onion

Times of India

Gateway Pundit

Babylon Bee

Daily Wire

Newsmax

Breitbart

Al Jazeera

Associated Press (AP)

The Information

The Base Rate Times

Fox News

Wall Street Journal

CNN

BBC

NPR

New York Times

92

79

72

72

72

69

66

66

56

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

46

45

41

34

34

34

20

18

9

Will the first Lunar Gateway modules launch later than 2025?

May 20, 2:44 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

96.39%chance

8485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

577

28

Will Lunar Gateway be visited by a non-Artemis crew before 2030?

May 20, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5.06%chance

9350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

402

28

Will the British Government ban non-alcoholic drinks for minors in 2026?

Jan 17, 5:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.96%chance

4240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

340

29

Will Lunar Gateway be visited by a non-Artemis crew before 2035?

May 20, 3:02 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

15.24%chance

6200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

27

Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles City Council election for district 15

Apr 13, 3:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4190

OptionProbability

Tim McOsker (incumbent)

Other

89

11

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