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Prediction markets for GD

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31%chance

642683358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5223

5020

Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?

Sep 4, 8:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

11027485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

913

Will China ever surpass US gdp?

Sep 4, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.56%chance

8920495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

775

What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

Nov 20, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13216102

OptionProbability

Between 2% and 4%

Between 4% and 6%

Between 0% and 2%

< -2%

Between -2% and 0%

More than 6%

Other

42

35

10

4

4

4

0

[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?

Jan 6, 11:15 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

8.67%chance

4015624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14578

3257

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.11%chance

3414703

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13307

8366

Will China's nominal GDP exceed the U.S.'s before 2040?

May 26, 1:54 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

54.93%chance

281290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1264

701

Sarah Paine 2026 Podcast appearance

Jan 24, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5594

OptionProbability

The Daily

Interesting Times with Ross Douthat

Conversations with Tyler

GD Politics

GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

The Diary of a CEO

The Ezra Klein Show

The Bulwark Podcast

Bannon's War Room

42

42

42

42

42

38

36

35

25

Who will win the GD Politics 2028 Democratic Primary Draft (Jan 2026 version)

Jan 29, 6:00 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

8196

OptionProbability

Nate Silver

Galen Druke

Clare Malone

50

33

17

Who will win the GD Politics 2028 Republican Primary Draft (Mar 2026 version)

Mar 10, 6:13 PMSep 1, 12:00 AM

6139

OptionProbability

Galen Druke

Nate Silver

Clare Malone

50

25

25

When will Senegal lower their debt to GDP ratio below 100%?

Apr 21, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

20

20

20

20

20

Do you listen to the GD Politics Podcast from the former 538 host Galen Druke.

Aug 21, 11:13 PM

90

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