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Prediction markets for GD

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.86%chance

653719860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5791

4783

Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?

Sep 4, 8:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

11027535

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

913

Will China ever surpass US gdp?

Sep 4, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.56%chance

8920495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

775

What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

Nov 20, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13216102

OptionProbability

Between 2% and 4%

Between 4% and 6%

Between 0% and 2%

< -2%

Between -2% and 0%

More than 6%

Other

42

35

10

4

4

4

0

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.11%chance

3414703

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13307

8366

Which of the following countries will be the biggest country by GDP in 2050?

Dec 18, 9:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

422639

OptionProbability

The USA

China

India

Other

Japan

Germany

Russia

55

36

5

3

0

0

0

Sarah Paine 2026 Podcast appearance

Jan 24, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72434

OptionProbability

The Daily

Interesting Times with Ross Douthat

Conversations with Tyler

GD Politics

GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

The Ezra Klein Show

The Bulwark Podcast

Bannon's War Room

The Diary of a CEO

10

10

10

10

10

9

9

9

9

Will China's nominal GDP exceed the U.S.'s before 2040?

May 26, 1:54 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

54.93%chance

281290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1264

701

Who will win the GD Politics 2028 Democratic Primary Draft (Jan 2026 version)

Jan 29, 6:00 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

8226

OptionProbability

Nate Silver

Clare Malone

Galen Druke

59

21

20

Who will win the GD Politics 2028 Republican Primary Draft (Mar 2026 version)

Mar 10, 6:13 PMSep 1, 12:00 AM

6139

OptionProbability

Galen Druke

Nate Silver

Clare Malone

50

25

25

When will Senegal lower their debt to GDP ratio below 100%?

Apr 21, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

20

20

20

20

20

Do you listen to the GD Politics Podcast from the former 538 host Galen Druke.

Aug 21, 11:13 PM

90

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