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Prediction markets for GD

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42%chance

597582583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3222

1451

Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)

Aug 29, 6:22 PMApr 1, 6:59 AM

1.07%chance

290314860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129735

3007

In which decade will China's GDP surpass US GDP?

Nov 3, 6:03 PMSep 30, 9:59 PM

5368847

OptionProbability

after 2049 or never

2030-2039

2040-49

before 2030

37

30

18

15

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

63.97%chance

3114632

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13264

8390

What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

Nov 20, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1308676

OptionProbability

Between 2% and 4%

Between 4% and 6%

More than 6%

Between 0% and 2%

< -2%

Between -2% and 0%

Other

33

32

17

11

4

3

0

Which of the following countries will be the biggest country by GDP in 2050?

Dec 18, 9:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

422639

OptionProbability

The USA

China

India

Other

Japan

Germany

Russia

55

36

5

3

0

0

0

[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?

Jan 6, 11:15 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

24.33%chance

162366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6197

4686

Premier League 2025/26 - Will Manchester United end with a positive GD?

May 28, 8:05 PMMay 30, 11:59 PM

96%chance

181014

OptionVotes

NO

YES

490

20

Sarah Paine 2026 Podcast appearance

Jan 24, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4402

OptionProbability

The Daily

Interesting Times with Ross Douthat

Conversations with Tyler

GD Politics

GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

The Ezra Klein Show

The Diary of a CEO

The Bulwark Podcast

Bannon's War Room

42

42

42

42

42

30

30

29

25

Who will win the GD Politics 2028 Republican Primary Draft (Mar 2026 version)

Mar 10, 6:13 PMSep 1, 12:00 AM

5109

OptionProbability

Clare Malone

Galen Druke

Nate Silver

42

40

18

Who will win the GD Politics 2028 Democratic Primary Draft (Jan 2026 version)

Jan 29, 6:00 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

444

OptionProbability

Galen Druke

Clare Malone

Nate Silver

56

30

14

Do you listen to the GD Politics Podcast from the former 538 host Galen Druke.

Aug 21, 11:13 PM

90

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