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Prediction markets for GD

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.51%chance

556502397

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3541

1087

Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)

Aug 29, 6:22 PMApr 1, 6:59 AM

1.03%chance

287313287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133131

2971

In which decade will China's GDP surpass US GDP?

Nov 3, 6:03 PMSep 30, 9:59 PM

5268462

OptionProbability

after 2049 or never

2030-2039

2040-49

before 2030

31

29

25

15

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.1%chance

7636038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

731

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.03%chance

3014622

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13282

8380

What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

Nov 20, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1298525

OptionProbability

Between 2% and 4%

Between 4% and 6%

More than 6%

Between 0% and 2%

< -2%

Between -2% and 0%

Other

33

32

17

11

4

3

0

Which of the following countries will be the biggest country by GDP in 2050?

Dec 18, 9:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

422639

OptionProbability

The USA

China

India

Other

Japan

Germany

Russia

55

36

5

3

0

0

0

[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?

Jan 6, 11:15 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

22.86%chance

121974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6561

4573

Sarah Paine 2026 Podcast appearance

Jan 24, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4402

OptionProbability

The Daily

Interesting Times with Ross Douthat

Conversations with Tyler

GD Politics

GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

The Ezra Klein Show

The Diary of a CEO

The Bulwark Podcast

Bannon's War Room

42

42

42

42

42

30

30

29

25

Premier League 2025/26 - Will Manchester United end with a positive GD?

May 28, 8:05 PMMay 30, 11:59 PM

80.4%chance

13322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

203

49

Who will win the GD Politics 2028 Democratic Primary Draft (Jan 2026 version)

Jan 29, 6:00 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

314

OptionProbability

Galen Druke

Clare Malone

Nate Silver

40

34

26

Do you listen to the GD Politics Podcast from the former 538 host Galen Druke.

Aug 21, 11:13 PM

90

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