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Prediction markets for GD

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.12%chance

619656687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5551

4212

In which decade will China's GDP surpass US GDP?

Nov 3, 6:03 PMSep 30, 9:59 PM

5569476

OptionProbability

2030-2039

after 2049 or never

before 2030

2040-49

36

32

19

13

Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?

Sep 4, 8:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.13%chance

10825352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

1140

Will China ever surpass US gdp?

Sep 4, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.76%chance

8820445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1248

805

What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

Nov 20, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13115926

OptionProbability

Between 2% and 4%

Between 4% and 6%

Between 0% and 2%

More than 6%

< -2%

Between -2% and 0%

Other

41

35

10

5

4

4

0

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.03%chance

3314678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13282

8380

[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?

Jan 6, 11:15 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

17.29%chance

339085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8381

4121

Sarah Paine 2026 Podcast appearance

Jan 24, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5594

OptionProbability

The Daily

Interesting Times with Ross Douthat

Conversations with Tyler

GD Politics

GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

The Diary of a CEO

The Ezra Klein Show

The Bulwark Podcast

Bannon's War Room

42

42

42

42

42

38

36

35

25

Who will win the GD Politics 2028 Republican Primary Draft (Mar 2026 version)

Mar 10, 6:13 PMSep 1, 12:00 AM

5109

OptionProbability

Clare Malone

Galen Druke

Nate Silver

42

40

18

Who will win the GD Politics 2028 Democratic Primary Draft (Jan 2026 version)

Jan 29, 6:00 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

6104

OptionProbability

Galen Druke

Clare Malone

Nate Silver

58

35

7

When will Senegal lower their debt to GDP ratio below 100%?

Apr 21, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

20

20

20

20

20

Do you listen to the GD Politics Podcast from the former 538 host Galen Druke.

Aug 21, 11:13 PM

90

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