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Prediction markets for GeM

Will GPT-5, OpenAI's open-source model, Claude Opus 4.1, and Gemini 3 all be released this week?

Aug 4, 10:50 PMAug 11, 10:49 PM

20.55%chance

489378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1966

509

Will the next Gemini model have a stupid fucking name?

Jun 17, 5:52 PMDec 31, 5:31 PM

48.89%chance

237877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

978

Will Gemini be more popular than Chatgpt at the end of 2025?

Jan 15, 3:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.27%chance

242475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2510

806

Is Gemini going to be used widely as a verb like how Google is used by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 1:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.91%chance

231621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1890

882

Will Gemini join the S&P 500?

Jan 2, 1:05 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2.4%chance

101501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1998

906

What will the next Pokemon games be named after?

Jan 26, 3:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23911

OptionProbability

A natural object

A color

Other

A gem or precious metal

An artificial object

A letter or symbol

A period of time

41

28

12

9

5

3

1

Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.84%chance

3410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

946

Which will be the majority pronunciation of the term “meme” by the year 2030?

Aug 14, 9:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10294

OptionProbability

Meme - rhymes with deem (most like gene)

Meme - pronounced “me me” like Mimi Rodgers

Sounds like Meh meh

Other

Meme - rhymes with gem

Meme - pronounced "may may"

87

3

3

3

2

2

Will AlphaEvolve reduce Gemini training time by at least 5% by the end of 2025?

May 16, 3:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.36%chance

6215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

46

Will the American Gem Trade Association add a new birthstone by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 2:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.06%chance

354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Who will change their logo first: gemini or luma

Jul 29, 7:29 AMDec 31, 7:25 AM

332

OptionProbability

Luma

Gemini

Neither

60

20

20

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

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