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Top stories

Health Minister Motsoaledi Receives Section 59 Report Confirming Racial Discrimination by Discovery, GEMS Medical Schemes Against Black Providers

Health Minister Motsoaledi Receives Section 59 Report Confirming Racial Discrimination by Discovery, GEMS Medical Schemes Against Black Providers

Authors

13

26 days ago

Prediction markets for GEMS

Is Gemini going to be used widely as a verb like how Google is used by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 1:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.91%chance

231621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1890

882

Will Gemini join the S&P 500?

Jan 2, 1:05 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2.4%chance

101501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1998

906

Gemini 3 releases before GPT-5?

Jul 12, 4:33 PMJul 12, 4:32 PM

10.93%chance

221045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

285

35

Will the next Gemini model have a stupid fucking name?

Jun 17, 5:52 PMDec 31, 5:31 PM

56.61%chance

131029

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

What will the next Pokemon games be named after?

Jan 26, 3:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23911

OptionProbability

A natural object

A color

Other

A gem or precious metal

An artificial object

A letter or symbol

A period of time

41

28

12

9

5

3

1

Will Gemini be more popular than Chatgpt at the end of 2025?

Jan 15, 3:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.31%chance

22695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1262

930

Will Google Gemini pass ChatGPT in the App Store by EOY?

Mar 27, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.7%chance

16494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

305

33

Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.84%chance

3410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

946

Will Google release Gemini 3-pro before October 1, 2025?

Jul 10, 2:45 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

55.32%chance

11319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Which will be the majority pronunciation of the term “meme” by the year 2030?

Aug 14, 9:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10294

OptionProbability

Meme - rhymes with deem (most like gene)

Meme - pronounced “me me” like Mimi Rodgers

Sounds like Meh meh

Other

Meme - rhymes with gem

Meme - pronounced "may may"

87

3

3

3

2

2

When will someone be able to recreate Google's Hands-on with Gemini video for the first time?

Dec 12, 4:33 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

5168

OptionProbability

First half of 2025

Second half of 2025

2026 or later

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

22

17

17

12

12

11

11

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

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