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Prediction markets for General Atlantic

Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?

May 5, 6:40 PMSep 30, 10:00 PM

86%chance

12709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

234

21

Will NATO cease to exist before 2030?

Jun 24, 6:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.74%chance

11519

OptionVotes

YES

NO

323

31

Spain removed from NATO by 2027?

Oct 11, 12:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.62%chance

6516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

410

24

Will AI lead to a large decrease in TRANSLATOR & INTERPRETER jobs before the end of 2027?

Nov 23, 8:36 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

85.31%chance

12371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

313

173

Which European countries will deploy naval vessels to the Pacific in 2026 and/or 2027?

Jan 13, 4:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3109

OptionProbability

Russia

UK

France

Netherlands

Germany

Italy

Spain

Denmark

Turkey

Portugal

Norway

Belgium

Greece

Poland

100

100

100

72

66

66

50

50

50

43

36

34

31

24

Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.49%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

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