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Prediction markets for General Court

Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in North Carolina's 3rd District?

Oct 6, 6:07 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

29238855

OptionProbability

Democratic Party — Raymond Smith Jr.

Republican Party — Greg Murphy

Another party or independent

80

20

0

Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Washington's 5th District?

Oct 6, 6:25 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

11168573

OptionProbability

Republican Party — Michael Baumgartner

Democratic Party — Carmela Conroy

Another party or independent

95

5

0

Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Arkansas' 2nd District?

Oct 6, 5:39 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

1176106

OptionProbability

Republican Party — French Hill

Democratic Party — Chris Jones

Another party or independent

95

5

0

If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?

Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

15.73%chance

16740693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24642

5236

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Will Trump win a third term as president in 2028? (shenanigans allowed)

Apr 1, 6:20 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

7.18%chance

398251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3594

278

Will Pete Hegseth go to prison?

Dec 21, 5:14 AMDec 21, 5:12 AM

154444

OptionProbability

Not before 31 December 2030

in 2030

in 2028

in 2029

in 2026

in 2027

75

9

6

6

2

2

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

Apr 22, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.1%chance

63775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2722

367

Will Massachusetts Bill SD.2808 pass in the 194th General Court?

Apr 15, 3:27 PMJan 5, 11:59 PM

89%chance

5453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

284

35

Will a US House seat flip from Democrat to Republican in a 2027 special election?

Oct 21, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.75%chance

3164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2104

1966

Will Massachusetts enact frontier AI safety legislation during the 194th General Court?

Oct 30, 12:01 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

71.56%chance

5152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

98

When will Senegal lower their debt to GDP ratio below 100%?

Apr 21, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

20

20

20

20

20

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