General Court News

Musk v. openAI trial prop bets [add answers]

Apr 30, 1:43 AMJul 30, 1:40 AM

9529394

OptionProbability

Defense win, case is dismissed or no remedies are ordered

Someone cries on the stand

Total damages awarded (even if funneled back to the non-profit) exceed $10 billion

Surprise witness: Ilya or Mira are called to testify against Altman

Licensing Restriction: The court restricts or nullifies OpenAI's exclusive licensing agreement with Microsoft (MSFT).

Structural Reversion: OpenAI is ordered to dissolve its for-profit arm or return to a structure where the non-profit has total veto power over all commercial activity.

Musk is held in comtempt or fined for posting on X

Executive Ouster: Court orders the removal or suspension of any current OpenAI executive (Altman, Brockman, etc.).

The court admits any conversation between Musk and an AI (i.e. Grok or ChatGPT)

Forced Open Sourcing: The court mandates the public release of weights or research for a specific frontier model (e.g., GPT-4 or GPT-5.5).

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

YES

1201

833

Will Trump win a third term as president in 2028? (shenanigans allowed)

Apr 1, 6:20 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

4.42%chance

307386

OptionVotes

YES

4650

215

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

Apr 22, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.66%chance

43645

OptionVotes

YES

4212

237

Will Pete Hegseth go to prison?

Dec 21, 5:14 AMDec 21, 5:12 AM

133629

OptionProbability

Not before 31 December 2030

in 2030

in 2028

in 2029

in 2026

in 2027

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

Apr 1, 7:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.7%chance

262978

OptionVotes

YES

1666

746

Intoxicating hemp-derived THC products federally banned in U.S. by end of 2026?

Nov 13, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.96%chance

61007

OptionVotes

YES

1083

924

New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori

Mar 21, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.68%chance

6855

OptionVotes

YES

1747

572

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari to hear the White House Ballroom case by the end of their 2026-2027 term?

Mar 31, 9:12 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

44.08%chance

8591

OptionVotes

YES

1126

888

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass

Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

19.43%chance

2501

OptionVotes

YES

1496

841

Will Massachusetts Bill SD.2808 pass in the 194th General Court?

Apr 15, 3:27 PMJan 5, 11:59 PM

44.84%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

111

When will Senegal lower their debt to GDP ratio below 100%?

Apr 21, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

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Musk v. openAI trial prop bets [add answers]

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Will Trump win a third term as president in 2028? (shenanigans allowed)

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

Will Pete Hegseth go to prison?

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

Intoxicating hemp-derived THC products federally banned in U.S. by end of 2026?

New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari to hear the White House Ballroom case by the end of their 2026-2027 term?

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass

Will Massachusetts Bill SD.2808 pass in the 194th General Court?

When will Senegal lower their debt to GDP ratio below 100%?

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