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Prediction markets for General Court

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

57.01%chance

9113224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

868

Will Trump win a third term as president in 2028? (shenanigans allowed)

Apr 1, 6:20 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

5.49%chance

296886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4150

241

Will another Ivy+ university lose the general ability to enroll international students by end of March 2026?

May 22, 9:57 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

7.02%chance

276180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3638

275

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

Apr 22, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.66%chance

43645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4212

237

Will Pete Hegseth go to prison?

Dec 21, 5:14 AMDec 21, 5:12 AM

133579

OptionProbability

Not before 31 December 2030

in 2030

in 2028

in 2029

in 2027

in 2026

81

7

5

5

2

1

Will the United States be in charge of at least part of Greenland by January 20, 2029?

Jan 25, 4:01 PMJan 20, 5:00 PM

15%chance

212690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

Will there be a False Flag in New York after Mamdani Election

Nov 17, 3:33 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

17.37%chance

132395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2181

459

How Many Statewide Offices Will Democrats win in Texas in 2026?

Mar 22, 12:05 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

81250

OptionProbability

1 or more

0

2 or more

3 or more

4 or more

5 or more

7 or more

6 or more

8 or more

9 or more

10 or more

11 or more

12 or more

13 or more

14 or more

15 (Democratic Sweep)

56

48

47

25

17

13

6

5

5

5

4

4

4

3

3

2

Intoxicating hemp-derived THC products federally banned in U.S. by end of 2026?

Nov 13, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.56%chance

5896

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

972

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.29%chance

11861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

951

New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori

Mar 21, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.62%chance

5854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

571

Will Massachusetts Bill SD.2808 pass in the 194th General Court?

Apr 15, 3:27 PMJan 5, 11:59 PM

44.84%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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