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Prediction markets for General Dynamics

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33264

2509

Will studies of wide binaries using Gaia DR4 provided robust evidence for MOND?

Aug 29, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.82%chance

5226945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1916

723

What other companies and brands will the Trump administration nationally socialize?

Aug 24, 3:22 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

345859

OptionProbability

Raytheon / RTX

OAN

Boeing

Lockheed Martin

Northrop Grumman

General Dynamics

Palantir

ExxonMobil

Chevron

Newsmax

SpaceX

CNN

TikTok

The Washington Post

25

23

22

20

19

19

17

16

14

12

10

10

8

6

Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?

Feb 12, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.89%chance

332645

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

815

Does Claude 3.5 have control vector(s) to increase its capabilities?

Jun 22, 5:36 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18%chance

312510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

47

How many seats will "Your Party" win at the next UK general election?

Aug 8, 7:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

181395

OptionProbability

0

3

4-5

2

1

6-8

9-13

14-21

22-34

56+

35-55

60

8

8

6

5

3

2

2

2

2

1

Will Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party On May 1st 2027?

May 3, 6:34 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

24.66%chance

11677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

38.74%chance

17460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

1014

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 30th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3135

OptionProbability

Bob Archuleta (incumbent)

Other

85

15

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.64%chance

458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Will Defense Contractor Company Stocks See a Positive Return of at least 15% or More During the 2020s?

Jan 17, 2:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.32%chance

251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

25

Will major health bodies recommend limiting linoleic acid intake before 2050?

Mar 11, 4:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.62%chance

226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

96

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