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Prediction markets for General Dynamics

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

Will studies of wide binaries using Gaia DR4 provided robust evidence for MOND?

Aug 29, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.82%chance

5226945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1916

723

What other companies and brands will the Trump administration nationally socialize?

Aug 24, 3:22 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

345859

OptionProbability

Raytheon / RTX

OAN

Boeing

Lockheed Martin

Northrop Grumman

General Dynamics

Palantir

ExxonMobil

Chevron

Newsmax

SpaceX

CNN

TikTok

The Washington Post

25

23

22

20

19

19

17

16

14

12

10

10

8

6

Does Claude 3.5 have control vector(s) to increase its capabilities?

Jun 22, 5:36 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13.85%chance

302424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

249

40

Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?

Dec 18, 3:13 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

90%chance

171956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

301

33

How many seats will "Your Party" win at the next UK general election?

Aug 8, 7:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

181395

OptionProbability

0

3

4-5

2

1

6-8

9-13

14-21

22-34

56+

35-55

60

8

8

6

5

3

2

2

2

2

1

Will Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party On May 1st 2027?

May 3, 6:34 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

40.07%chance

10555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

38.74%chance

17460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

1014

Will the Japanese yen trade below 160 JPY/USD at the end of March 2026?

Jan 21, 8:29 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

76.14%chance

4195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

179

56

Will Defense Contractor Company Stocks See a Positive Return of at least 15% or More During the 2020s?

Jan 17, 2:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.32%chance

251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

25

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.48%chance

451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

Rupert Lowe still UK MP after 2029 general election?

Jul 11, 9:34 PMAug 14, 11:59 PM

43.19%chance

329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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