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Prediction markets for General Dynamics

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

Will studies of wide binaries using Gaia DR4 provided robust evidence for MOND?

Aug 29, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.82%chance

5226945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1916

723

Will Oasis break up before the end of their 2025 live tour?

Oct 15, 4:26 PMNov 9, 4:59 AM

10.57%chance

163909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2908

344

Does Claude 3.5 have control vector(s) to increase its capabilities?

Jun 22, 5:36 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.48%chance

282410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

265

38

Zohran Mamdani wins NYC Mayoral general election mandate (50%)?

Jul 12, 2:59 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

49.73%chance

15850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

Party for Freedom (PVV) secures the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary election on October 29, 2025

Jul 26, 5:21 AMOct 29, 5:20 AM

54.34%chance

10604

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

917

NSC wins seats in 2025 Dutch Elections?

Jun 4, 8:08 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

10.39%chance

8596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

294

34

Which of the following defense companies will have the highest overall change in stock price in CY2025?

Jan 8, 6:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4540

OptionProbability

RTX, formerly Raytheon (RTX)

Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC)

Boeing Co (BA)

General Dynamics Corp (GD)

Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT)

29

28

19

14

10

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

40.61%chance

17410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

991

JA21 wins at least 4 seats at the 2025 Dutch Elections?

Jun 23, 8:58 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

89.38%chance

6342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

290

34

Will Gwern Branwen, openly and under his real name, get employed in 2025?

Nov 15, 6:45 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

10.92%chance

6310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

286

35

Will Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party On May 1st 2027?

May 3, 6:34 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

25.2%chance

6213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

58

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