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Prediction markets for General Dynamics

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.55%chance

8250361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28550

2982

Will studies of wide binaries using Gaia DR4 provided robust evidence for MOND?

Aug 29, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.26%chance

5327061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1224

823

What other companies and brands will the Trump administration nationally socialize?

Aug 24, 3:22 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

346089

OptionProbability

Raytheon / RTX

Boeing

OAN

Lockheed Martin

ExxonMobil

Northrop Grumman

General Dynamics

Palantir

Chevron

Newsmax

SpaceX

CNN

TikTok

The Washington Post

27

24

23

21

20

20

20

17

15

14

10

10

7

6

Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?

Feb 12, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.55%chance

424883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1966

509

Does Claude 3.5 have control vector(s) to increase its capabilities?

Jun 22, 5:36 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18%chance

312510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

47

How many seats will "Your Party" win at the next UK general election?

Aug 8, 7:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

181464

OptionProbability

0

3

4-5

1

2

6-8

9-13

14-21

22-34

56+

35-55

65

7

7

5

5

3

2

2

2

2

1

Will Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party On May 1st 2027?

May 3, 6:34 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

79.99%chance

13869

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

50

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

38.86%chance

18462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

1016

Will major health bodies recommend limiting linoleic acid intake before 2050?

Mar 11, 4:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.62%chance

386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

96

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.64%chance

458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

When will housekeeping be fully automated with 99% success rate per house service?

Oct 6, 6:51 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

154

OptionProbability

Before 2045

Before 2050

Before 2055

Before 2060

Before 2035

Before 2040

Before 2030

50

50

50

50

41

41

18

Will Defense Contractor Company Stocks See a Positive Return of at least 15% or More During the 2020s?

Jan 17, 2:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.32%chance

251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

25

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