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Prediction markets for General Dynamics

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29364

2889

Will studies of wide binaries using Gaia DR4 provided robust evidence for MOND?

Aug 29, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.82%chance

5226945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1916

723

What other companies and brands will the Trump administration nationally socialize?

Aug 24, 3:22 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

345859

OptionProbability

Raytheon / RTX

OAN

Boeing

Lockheed Martin

Northrop Grumman

General Dynamics

Palantir

ExxonMobil

Chevron

Newsmax

SpaceX

CNN

TikTok

The Washington Post

25

23

22

20

19

19

17

16

14

12

10

10

8

6

Will Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party on May 1st 2026?

May 3, 6:29 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

97.94%chance

243111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

690

15

Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?

Feb 12, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.7%chance

292163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

778

How many seats will "Your Party" win at the next UK general election?

Aug 8, 7:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

181395

OptionProbability

0

3

4-5

2

1

6-8

9-13

14-21

22-34

56+

35-55

60

8

8

6

5

3

2

2

2

2

1

Will Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party On May 1st 2027?

May 3, 6:34 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

24.66%chance

11677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

38.74%chance

17460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

1014

Will new KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun meet in person with Chinese President Xi Jinping before 2027?

Dec 24, 4:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

5251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

Will a Republican win this state's 2027 Gubernatorial election?

Mar 12, 1:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1120

OptionProbability

Louisiana

Mississippi

Kentucky

84

84

73

Will new KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun meet in person with Chinese President Xi Jinping before 2028?

Oct 21, 3:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.4%chance

252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.48%chance

451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

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