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Prediction markets for General Fund

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.61%chance

2267678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6755

3832

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

58%chance

9113248

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

851

Will Iran strike US soil this year?

Mar 11, 8:32 PMMar 12, 11:59 PM

18.93%chance

9011820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2069

483

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Feb 21, 9:33 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

76.73%chance

6811166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1817

551

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.36%chance

628257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3276

2526

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

935

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?

Feb 12, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.51%chance

312442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

860

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30.74%chance

231305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

963

Intoxicating hemp-derived THC products federally banned in U.S. by end of 2026?

Nov 13, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.51%chance

6976

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

951

Will BART close multiple stations in 2027?

Mar 11, 5:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.48%chance

7420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

808

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