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Prediction markets for General Fund

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.69%chance

2468128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6179

4282

Will Jamie Joyce win the 2026 12th California Congressional district race?

Jun 18, 9:02 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

2.45%chance

1516105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7292

427

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Feb 21, 9:33 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

71.32%chance

7011582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1578

635

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

7210411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4186

2254

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.63%chance

199507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7378

2976

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39%chance

274155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

801

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.78%chance

133459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6382

3296

Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?

Feb 12, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.99%chance

363347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

750

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30.74%chance

231305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

963

Will BART close multiple stations in 2027?

Mar 11, 5:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.84%chance

8520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1338

747

When will Senegal lower their debt to GDP ratio below 100%?

Apr 21, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

20

20

20

20

20

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