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Prediction markets for General Fusion

Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?

Jan 26, 11:48 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

61.2%chance

874725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1359

976

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2029?

Sep 23, 4:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7.58%chance

192609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1795

881

Will AGI or widespread commercial nuclear fusion be developed first?

Jan 10, 6:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

322027

OptionProbability

AGI

Nuclear Fusion

77

23

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2039?

Sep 24, 10:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.98%chance

211212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

968

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2034?

Sep 24, 10:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

29.21%chance

17752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

896

What year do we see the emergence of a viable third political party in the US?

Feb 27, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7464

OptionProbability

2032

2030

2028

60

27

13

Will a nuclear bomb be used in a terrorist attack before 2035?

Dec 2, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.91%chance

13327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

50

Will Adriano Espaillat run in the 2026 NY13 general election as an independent or third party candidate?

Jun 24, 4:52 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

14%chance

1207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

Which positive news category will make 2026 world-wide headlines?

Dec 24, 4:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5129

OptionProbability

Medical/Healthcare

Geopolitics

Technology

Economy

Fundamental research

Environment and sustainability

Society

Space Exploration

Art and culture

Human Rights

Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

77

76

76

75

54

50

50

36

34

34

34

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