General Matter News

Will studies of wide binaries using Gaia DR4 provided robust evidence for MOND?

Aug 29, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.26%chance

5327061

OptionVotes

YES

1224

823

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

YES

1201

833

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Oct 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.13%chance

888994

OptionVotes

YES

1087

819

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Mar 16, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

185918

OptionProbability

The existence of Dark Matter explains the anomaly in galaxy rotation curves (85%)

COVID-19 was natural in origin (80%).

The Lost Colony of Roanoke colonists have living decedents (55%)

The Mar Saba letter discovered by Morton Smith and containing excerpts from the "Secret Gospel of Mark" is a modern forgery (25%)

D.B. Cooper survived his parachute jump and escaped (30%)

The Hubble Tension can be resolved without new physics or changes to cosmological models (55%)

JonBenét Ramsey was killed by a member of her family (10%)

Lizzie Borden killed her parents (10%)

Aaron Kosminski was Jack the Ripper (35%)

The Voynich manuscript is a meaningful text (15%)

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19%chance

454728

OptionVotes

YES

987

809

Will China have its first female General Secretary before the US has its first female President?

Apr 8, 1:58 PMAug 8, 9:59 PM

12.53%chance

321169

OptionVotes

YES

1634

846

Will autonomous drone swarms kill over a thousand soldiers by the end of the Ukraine-Russia War?

Feb 8, 3:32 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

41.99%chance

231071

OptionVotes

YES

1218

511

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

11920

OptionVotes

YES

1173

961

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.7%chance

14622

OptionVotes

YES

1157

406

Will a model from a China-headquartered lab hold the #1 Epoch general ECI rank before 2028?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

12.2%chance

2600

OptionVotes

YES

1600

889

Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?

Nov 21, 9:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.53%chance

15424

OptionVotes

YES

1156

934

Will China have its first female General Secretary before Russia has its first female President?

Apr 13, 9:59 AMAug 8, 9:59 PM

36.42%chance

13191

OptionVotes

YES

1037

970

General Matter News

Prediction markets for General Matter

Prediction markets for General Matter

Prediction markets for General Matter

Will studies of wide binaries using Gaia DR4 provided robust evidence for MOND?

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Will China have its first female General Secretary before the US has its first female President?

Will autonomous drone swarms kill over a thousand soldiers by the end of the Ukraine-Russia War?

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Will a model from a China-headquartered lab hold the #1 Epoch general ECI rank before 2028?

Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?

Will China have its first female General Secretary before Russia has its first female President?

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