General Matter News

Will Elon Musk buy TikTok?

Jan 14, 12:45 AMAug 31, 11:00 PM

1.12%chance

233293868

OptionVotes

YES

133118

5256

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

43%chance

8712384

OptionVotes

YES

1151

869

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Sep 23, 2:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.57%chance

889441

OptionVotes

YES

1058

881

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Oct 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.28%chance

848613

OptionVotes

YES

1068

972

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Mar 16, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

115646

OptionProbability

The existence of Dark Matter explains the anomaly in galaxy rotation curves (85%)

COVID-19 was natural in origin (80%).

The Lost Colony of Roanoke colonists have living decedents (55%)

The Mar Saba letter discovered by Morton Smith and containing excerpts from the "Secret Gospel of Mark" is a modern forgery (25%)

D.B. Cooper survived his parachute jump and escaped (30%)

The Voynich manuscript is a meaningful text (15%)

The Hubble Tension can be resolved without new physics or changes to cosmological models (55%)

JonBenét Ramsey was killed by a member of her family (10%)

Lizzie Borden killed her parents (10%)

Aaron Kosminski was Jack the Ripper (35%)

Will LGBTQ+ content online be legally censored in the US before 2026?

Jan 30, 3:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.13%chance

373924

OptionVotes

YES

1421

704

(Cash prizes if you’re right!) Should I do a cheap outdoor wedding?

Jun 10, 2:03 AMSep 14, 11:59 PM

58%chance

223202

OptionVotes

YES

1175

851

Will Google emoji kitchen include combos for the strong arm emoji 💪 by mid 2026?

Jan 2, 8:16 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

18.21%chance

312860

OptionVotes

YES

2119

472

Will China have its first female General Secretary before the US has its first female President?

Apr 8, 1:58 PMAug 8, 9:59 PM

12.53%chance

321169

OptionVotes

YES

1634

846

Will autonomous drone swarms kill over a thousand soldiers by the end of the Ukraine-Russia War?

Feb 8, 3:32 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

42.05%chance

16851

OptionVotes

YES

1212

507

Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?

Nov 21, 9:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.83%chance

14414

OptionVotes

YES

1189

924

Will China have its first female General Secretary before Russia has its first female President?

Apr 13, 9:59 AMAug 8, 9:59 PM

36.17%chance

12187

OptionVotes

YES

1044

966

General Matter News

Prediction markets for General Matter

Prediction markets for General Matter

Prediction markets for General Matter

Will Elon Musk buy TikTok?

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Will LGBTQ+ content online be legally censored in the US before 2026?

(Cash prizes if you’re right!) Should I do a cheap outdoor wedding?

Will Google emoji kitchen include combos for the strong arm emoji 💪 by mid 2026?

Will China have its first female General Secretary before the US has its first female President?

Will autonomous drone swarms kill over a thousand soldiers by the end of the Ukraine-Russia War?

Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?

Will China have its first female General Secretary before Russia has its first female President?

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