General Matter News

Will studies of wide binaries using Gaia DR4 provided robust evidence for MOND?

Aug 29, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.82%chance

5226945

OptionVotes

YES

1916

723

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

52.48%chance

8912775

OptionVotes

YES

1051

952

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Sep 23, 2:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.33%chance

9110673

OptionVotes

YES

1412

539

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Oct 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.7%chance

878914

OptionVotes

YES

1136

739

Will Google provide security and Android version updates for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro until October 2030?

Oct 7, 5:31 AMOct 1, 1:59 PM

72.59%chance

357380

OptionVotes

YES

1425

745

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Mar 16, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

115646

OptionProbability

The existence of Dark Matter explains the anomaly in galaxy rotation curves (85%)

COVID-19 was natural in origin (80%).

The Lost Colony of Roanoke colonists have living decedents (55%)

The Mar Saba letter discovered by Morton Smith and containing excerpts from the "Secret Gospel of Mark" is a modern forgery (25%)

D.B. Cooper survived his parachute jump and escaped (30%)

The Voynich manuscript is a meaningful text (15%)

The Hubble Tension can be resolved without new physics or changes to cosmological models (55%)

JonBenét Ramsey was killed by a member of her family (10%)

Lizzie Borden killed her parents (10%)

Aaron Kosminski was Jack the Ripper (35%)

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.38%chance

424565

OptionVotes

YES

981

837

Will China have its first female General Secretary before the US has its first female President?

Apr 8, 1:58 PMAug 8, 9:59 PM

12.53%chance

321169

OptionVotes

YES

1634

846

Will autonomous drone swarms kill over a thousand soldiers by the end of the Ukraine-Russia War?

Feb 8, 3:32 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

39.09%chance

17901

OptionVotes

YES

1178

557

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.46%chance

14587

OptionVotes

YES

1139

442

Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?

Nov 21, 9:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.83%chance

14414

OptionVotes

YES

1189

924

Will China have its first female General Secretary before Russia has its first female President?

Apr 13, 9:59 AMAug 8, 9:59 PM

36.42%chance

13191

OptionVotes

YES

1037

970

General Matter News

Prediction markets for General Matter

Prediction markets for General Matter

Prediction markets for General Matter

Will studies of wide binaries using Gaia DR4 provided robust evidence for MOND?

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Will Google provide security and Android version updates for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro until October 2030?

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Will China have its first female General Secretary before the US has its first female President?

Will autonomous drone swarms kill over a thousand soldiers by the end of the Ukraine-Russia War?

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?

Will China have its first female General Secretary before Russia has its first female President?

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