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Prediction markets for Generative Ventures

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.56%chance

265578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1545

648

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.07%chance

193036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

316

Will Moltbook survive through feb 2026?

Jan 31, 2:10 PMMar 1, 2:06 PM

90.62%chance

281177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

311

32

Will I get into Stanford as a Transfer Undergraduate

Feb 2, 2:08 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

9806

OptionProbability

Acceptance

Rejection

Waitlist

46

38

16

Will bioengineering plastic digesting microbes become profitable?

Dec 31, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16432

OptionProbability

by the end of 2034

by the end of 2050

never

by the end of 2024

56

35

7

2

Will Bryce H generate at least $1 in PROFIT from entrepreneurial ventures?

Jan 3, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.13%chance

377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

61

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