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Prediction markets for Generative Ventures

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.29%chance

6420347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

542

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.77%chance

347169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3717

270

Will George Soros live to see the 2029 US presidential inauguration?

Mar 23, 3:54 AMJan 20, 12:00 PM

56.11%chance

42460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1131

884

Will Elon Musk be worth more than 2 Trillion Dollars before 2027?

Jun 23, 12:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.48%chance

261098

OptionVotes

YES

NO

627

16

Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.

Feb 24, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.57%chance

22850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

457

22

Will a privately-held company ever become the most valuable in the world?

Oct 17, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.48%chance

9459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

48

Will bioengineering plastic digesting microbes become profitable?

Dec 31, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16432

OptionProbability

by the end of 2034

by the end of 2050

never

by the end of 2024

56

35

7

2

when will Elomusk finish his last project in this year 2026

Jun 25, 10:42 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

5367

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Oct 2026

Before Dec 2026

Before Aug 2026

9

8

8

2

Which acquired improv theatre will be dumped first?

Feb 11, 1:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1150

OptionProbability

UCB

iO

Second City

None, these will be the first-ever private equity acquisitions to thrive

36

31

31

2

Will Truth Social be bought before 2029?

Jun 19, 6:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.97%chance

681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Will Bryce H generate at least $1 in PROFIT from entrepreneurial ventures?

Jan 3, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.13%chance

377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

61

Will https://www.tetsuwan.com/ Series A by EOY2028?

May 15, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.96%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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