Genuine Parts News

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.14%chance

141487

OptionVotes

YES

1991

502

Doug Ford and PC Party win next Ontario election?

Aug 9, 11:41 AMJun 2, 11:59 PM

52.27%chance

5360

OptionVotes

YES

1046

956

Will Tesla give paid public Cybercab rides in a US metro outside Texas by April 30, 2027?

Sep 8, 1:49 AMMay 5, 11:59 PM

88.59%chance

3165

OptionVotes

YES

238

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10138

OptionProbability

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

YES

194

119

Will Once Upon A Time in Shaolin be publicly leaked by the end of 2027?

May 2, 5:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.46%chance

9117

OptionVotes

YES

126

How many internship interviews will I receive by 5/30/2027

Jul 24, 2:14 PMMay 29, 11:59 PM

391

OptionProbability

5 - 6

7 - 9

0 (Tears of Sorrow)

3 - 4

10 - 14

20+ (Tears of Joy)

1 - 2

15 - 19

Will Jon Zherka have a real, unironic, documented mental breakdown in the next 5 years?

Jan 9, 9:57 PMJan 9, 10:59 PM

56%chance

687

OptionVotes

YES

156

103

Who will launch the first crewed space station with functioning artificial gravity (via rotation)?

Jul 19, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

673

OptionProbability

Chinese state or private enterprise

No artificial-gravity station launched by resolution date

US Company and/or NASA

European company or agency

Russian company or Roscosmos

Other

Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.52%chance

445

OptionVotes

YES

134

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

bounty: inspire me and take my mana.

Jan 21, 12:02 AM

Genuine Parts News

Prediction markets for Genuine Parts

Prediction markets for Genuine Parts

Prediction markets for Genuine Parts

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Doug Ford and PC Party win next Ontario election?

Will Tesla give paid public Cybercab rides in a US metro outside Texas by April 30, 2027?

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Will Once Upon A Time in Shaolin be publicly leaked by the end of 2027?

How many internship interviews will I receive by 5/30/2027

Will Jon Zherka have a real, unironic, documented mental breakdown in the next 5 years?

Who will launch the first crewed space station with functioning artificial gravity (via rotation)?

Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

bounty: inspire me and take my mana.

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