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Prediction markets for Geo

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.56%chance

8517148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2279

1711

Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?

Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

84.58%chance

545914

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1630

1188

Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?

Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66%chance

502545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

901

Will there be geopolitical instability over fears of other countries reaching superintelligence? (ACX, AI 2027 #2)

Apr 8, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.57%chance

132182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

969

Will there be a second Russia-Georgia war by 2030?

May 17, 3:34 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

24.38%chance

221616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1302

869

In 2025, will I teach people that Projective Geometric Algebra (PGA)'s "dual" is similar to the Fourier transform?

Sep 20, 7:52 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.54%chance

191347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1567

420

What subject will arml i10 be

May 1, 12:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41013

OptionProbability

Geo

Alg

NT

Combo

100

0

0

0

Will Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?

Dec 24, 6:32 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

50.88%chance

11655

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

983

Will any of the Georgia election interference case defendants be remanded to custody for violating their bond?

Dec 3, 11:01 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

29.42%chance

14435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

954

Ten years after Trump’s departure from politics, will he see a George Bush style approval ratings bump?

Apr 21, 2:35 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

26.26%chance

15235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

950

Will the Australian outback be ‘greened’ / terraformed / geo-engineered before 2100?

Sep 11, 12:17 AMJan 10, 12:59 PM

86.74%chance

4162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

31

Will the EU regulate geo-blocking of copyright protected content by EOY 2027?

Feb 26, 8:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.31%chance

1198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

997

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