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Prediction markets for German Bundestag

Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?

Jan 22, 4:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12%chance

2423827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12196

9630

Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?

Mar 6, 11:53 AMMar 25, 9:59 PM

40%chance

131024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?

Feb 26, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

13742

OptionProbability

No one before 2030

Friedrich Merz

Other

Boris Pistorius

Alice Weidel

43

22

14

12

9

Will Jens Spahn have to step down by the end of ... ?

Jul 15, 11:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5386

When will Germany decide about its nuclear waste repository?

Jul 23, 4:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.03%chance

8316

OptionProbability

NO

YES

436

242

Will the broadly centrist parties still have a majority after the next German Bundestag election?

Apr 24, 9:34 PMMar 25, 12:59 AM

63%chance

7305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1305

766

Will Jens Spahn step down as leader of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the German Bundestag in 2025?

Jun 25, 1:13 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

28.1%chance

8232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

63

In which state will Germany decide to build a radioactive waste repository before 2069?

May 17, 6:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7221

OptionProbability

No Bundestag decision before 2069

Brandenburg

Bavaria

Lower Saxony

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

North Rhine-Westphalia

Schleswig-Holstein

Saxony-Anhalt

Thuringia

Baden-Württemberg

Berlin

Hesse

Rhineland-Palatinate

Saxony

Bremen

Hamburg

Saarland

40

28

8

4

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

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