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Prediction markets for German government

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

Aug 18, 12:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.26%chance

8819556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1612

651

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Oct 27, 10:32 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

50.97%chance

224343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

981

Will German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?

Sep 3, 8:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7.46%chance

292872

OptionVotes

NO

YES

963

949

Will Germany give up paper correspondence before the technological singularity happens?

May 22, 10:42 AMOct 29, 9:59 PM

18.22%chance

182717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2119

472

Which coalition will govern Germany after the next federal election?

Feb 24, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

302366

OptionProbability

CDU/CSU + SPD

CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens

CDU/CSU + AfD

Other

SPD + Greens + Left

CDU/CSU + Greens + FDP

CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP

CDU/CSU + Greens

No coalition before 2030

SPD + Greens + FDP

SPD + Greens

CDU/CSU + FDP

CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP

CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens + FDP

AfD alone

50

22

9

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?

May 23, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11860

OptionProbability

Not on NATO area/Not at all

Estonia

Lithuania

Other

Latvia

Finland

Alaska

70

11

5

5

4

3

3

Will the German government revert cannabis legalization in the next 4 years?

May 3, 7:19 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

3.94%chance

13501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

494

20

Will the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029?

May 20, 9:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.28%chance

6390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

182

55

Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?

Feb 9, 3:14 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

13.76%chance

12342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

40

The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections?

Aug 17, 10:40 AMMar 30, 10:59 PM

47.89%chance

12296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?

Feb 9, 3:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.85%chance

7141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

68

Will the German government raise the sales tax before the next federal election?

Apr 7, 1:17 AMSep 23, 11:59 PM

55.16%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

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