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Prediction markets for GES

Will Donald Trump adopt and use his own hand gesture/salute?

Feb 24, 4:02 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

9.9%chance

15507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

302

33

Will "AI in 2025: gestalt" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 8, 8:19 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Will Apple enable users to use gesture and voice input as primary interaction methods by 2028?

Mar 12, 6:49 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

42.74%chance

4210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

172

In what year will an animal be brought to live birth after being gestated entirely ex vivo?

Nov 27, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5110

OptionProbability

2026-2030

2031-2040

2041-2050

2051-2060

2061-2070

2071-2080

2081-2090

2091-2100

2101-2110

2111-2120

2121-2130

36

29

11

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will https://ocov2.jpl.nasa.gov/ (orbiting carbon observatory) data be accessible by on the NASA website by EOY2027?

Aug 6, 3:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.38%chance

297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

175

57

How uncomfortable would this "attractive micro-gestures" procedure make you feel (see description)

Mar 16, 2:39 AM

80

Elon's gesture at the inauguration was...

Jan 23, 6:25 PM

910

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