Gigs News

Will Tesla construct a Gigafactory in India before 2026?

Oct 30, 10:40 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

2.06%chance

81006

OptionVotes

YES

1027

When will OpenAI achieve the capacity to produce 1 gigawatt of AI infrastructure weekly?

Sep 23, 3:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8582

OptionProbability

Before 2051

Before 2042

Before 2036

Before 2032

Before 2028

Will the Giant Sequoia, a.k.a. Giant Redwood (Sequoiadendron giganteum) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 28, 8:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.22%chance

9468

OptionVotes

YES

946

386

Which of these things will I be actively doing at the end of 2025?

Jan 2, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5441

OptionProbability

Fantasizing about making video games (Will fail if I actually make one this year)

Doing leather work

Maintaining a consistent exercise regime with Ring Fit

Sewing clothes for my smartdoll (did on and off last year)

Going to college for mechanical engineering (sounds like fun, worried about finances)

Learning Polish on Duolingo (Market start: 29 day streak)

Working gigs as a fantasy casino dealer (acquired work last month, worked 2 gigs as of market open)

Writing stories

Making YouTube content

Playing Ukelele (seeking to re-learn)

Spinning fiber (tried last year: wasn’t a huge fan, but I’ll at least try to finish the 4oz I bought)

Trying to make video games

Will there be more than 1 year of more than 100 attributable agentic human deaths from AI before a human gigadeath event

Mar 31, 4:54 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

87.5%chance

5281

OptionVotes

YES

183

When will the US have median Gigabit Internet Speeds 🇺🇸🛜🌐

Mar 2, 1:40 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

6194

OptionProbability

After 2032

2030 - 2032

2027 - 2029

2024 - 2026

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?

Apr 12, 7:38 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

65%chance

874

OptionVotes

YES

225

130

Will Freyr's Giga America factory in the US be completed before 2040?

Feb 14, 11:58 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

67.07%chance

360

OptionVotes

YES

152

Exit valuation of Giga ML (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:35 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

Will "the Giga Press was a mistake" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 25, 5:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Will Jose Luis ricon become kegan stage 5 gigachad by 2032

Jul 27, 11:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.61%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

Will amusement ride manufacturer RMC build a gigacoaster (height or drop >= 300 ft) by 2030?

Dec 27, 8:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52.44%chance

OptionVotes

YES

105

Gigs News

Prediction markets for Gigs

Prediction markets for Gigs

Prediction markets for Gigs

Will Tesla construct a Gigafactory in India before 2026?

When will OpenAI achieve the capacity to produce 1 gigawatt of AI infrastructure weekly?

Will the Giant Sequoia, a.k.a. Giant Redwood (Sequoiadendron giganteum) become extinct in the current century?

Which of these things will I be actively doing at the end of 2025?

Will there be more than 1 year of more than 100 attributable agentic human deaths from AI before a human gigadeath event

When will the US have median Gigabit Internet Speeds 🇺🇸🛜🌐

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?

Will Freyr's Giga America factory in the US be completed before 2040?

Exit valuation of Giga ML (YC S23)?

Will "the Giga Press was a mistake" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will Jose Luis ricon become kegan stage 5 gigachad by 2032

Will amusement ride manufacturer RMC build a gigacoaster (height or drop >= 300 ft) by 2030?

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