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Prediction markets for Gigs

When will OpenAI achieve the capacity to produce 1 gigawatt of AI infrastructure weekly?

Sep 23, 3:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8582

OptionProbability

Before 2051

Before 2042

Before 2036

Before 2032

Before 2028

50

48

40

31

16

Will the Giant Sequoia, a.k.a. Giant Redwood (Sequoiadendron giganteum) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 28, 8:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.22%chance

9468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

946

386

Will there be more than 1 year of more than 100 attributable agentic human deaths from AI before a human gigadeath event

Mar 31, 4:54 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

87.5%chance

5281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

79

How many Gigabytes will GTA VI PC edition be when it is officially released?

Dec 31, 8:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4275

OptionProbability

200 - 249

150 - 199

100 - 149

250 - 349

0 - 99

350 - 499

500 - 749

750 - 1000

Above 1000

21

18

13

12

10

10

10

4

3

When will the US have median Gigabit Internet Speeds 🇺🇸🛜🌐

Mar 2, 1:40 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

6194

OptionProbability

After 2032

2030 - 2032

2027 - 2029

2024 - 2026

70

17

10

4

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?

Apr 12, 7:38 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

65%chance

874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

225

130

Will Freyr's Giga America factory in the US be completed before 2040?

Feb 14, 11:58 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

67.07%chance

360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

152

79

Exit valuation of Giga ML (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:35 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

59

14

14

14

Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:25 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Jose Luis ricon become kegan stage 5 gigachad by 2032

Jul 27, 11:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.61%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will amusement ride manufacturer RMC build a gigacoaster (height or drop >= 300 ft) by 2030?

Dec 27, 8:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52.44%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

Is it true that every time someone namedrops Jose Luis Ricon, someone in the distance CAN'T RESIST GIGGLING/SMILING?

Aug 25, 6:41 PM

70

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